دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 101440
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله

یک مدل برای درک سفارشات از شدت فن آوری های خرابکارانه

عنوان انگلیسی
A model for understanding the orders of magnitude of disruptive technologies
کد مقاله سال انتشار تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی
101440 2018 14 صفحه PDF
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 129, April 2018, Pages 261-274

ترجمه کلمات کلیدی
تکنولوژی های خرابکارانه، اکوسیستم نوآوری، سیستم های انعطاف پذیر، روند تکنولوژیکی،
کلمات کلیدی انگلیسی
Disruptive technologies; Innovation ecosystem; Resilient systems; Technological trends;
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله  یک مدل برای درک سفارشات از شدت فن آوری های خرابکارانه

چکیده انگلیسی

There are numerous emerging technologies that are potentially disruptive to business, to government, and to society. This paper looks at the two levels of disruptive technologies. A first order disruption is a localized change, within a market or industry. A second order disruption has much larger influences, affecting many industries and substantially changing societal norms and institutions. This paper presents an analysis of these types of disruptions and synthesizes the literature on disruptive technologies and Kondratieff's long waves. Previous definitions of disruptive technologies have focused on disruptions to commercial markets and existing firms. That is, on the first order of disruption, where a particular technology is disruptive. The second order disruptions are technological disruptions, where the impacts ripple through society. That is, these technologies disrupt social interactions and relationships, organizational structures, institutions and public policies. Since innovation ecosystems are complex, dynamic, adaptive systems, technological design and development necessarily interact with social trends. Understanding and modelling potential disruptions will require taking a holistic perspective of the socio-technical innovation ecosystem. This paper lays out a conceptual model of first and second order disruptions and identifies the key factors necessary for modelling the process that results in second order disruptions—a process that necessarily occurs at the intersection of several highly-complex interactive systems.