مصرف برق و رشد اقتصادی در بورکینافاسو: یک تحلیل هم انباشتگی
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|11101||2010||8 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||محاسبه نشده|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Energy Economics, Volume 32, Issue 3, May 2010, Pages 524–531
This study empirically establishes the direction of causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in Burkina Faso for the period 1968–2003. The bounds test yields evidence of cointegration between electricity consumption, GDP, and capital formation when electricity consumption and GDP are used as dependent variable. Causality results indicate that there is no significant causal relationship between electricity consumption and investment. Estimates, however, detect in the long-run a bidirectional causal relationship between electricity use and real GDP. There is also evidence of a positive feedback causal relationship between GDP and capital formation. Burkina Faso is therefore an energy dependent country. It is also a country in which electricity consumption is growing with the level of income. All of this shows that electricity is a significant factor in socio-economic development in Burkina Faso; as such, energy policy must be implemented to ensure that electricity generates fewer potential negative impacts.
The analysis of the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic activity is predominant in the literature related to energy economics and has been subject to many empirical studies. Interest in establishing the direction of causality between energy consumption and economic growth was raised in the literature some 30 years ago (Kraft and Kraft, 1978, Akarca and Long, 1979 and Akarca and Long, 1980). This was inspired by the various oil crises of the seventies that somehow slowed down economic activity all over the world. Beyond its impact on world inflation, the increase in oil prices can have recession effects on economies strongly dependent on energy, both in the long-term and the short-term. These last years, because of the events in the Persian Gulf and due to recent developments in econometric techniques, the literature related to energy consumption and economic growth has shown a renewal of interest (Asafu-Adjaye, 2000, Shiu and Lam, 2004, Jumbe, 2004, Paul and Bhattachargya, 2004, Oh and Lee, 2004, Lee, 2005, Narayan and Smyth, 2005, Narayan and Singh, 2007, Akinlo, 2008, Odhiambo, 2009 and Wolde-Rufael, 2009). Like most African countries, Burkina Faso is basically an agricultural country with a relatively small industrial sector. The per capita Gross National Income (GNI) was estimated at 430 U.S. dollars in 2007. For the same year, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was approximately 6.8 billion US dollars. The GDP grew annually by an average of 5.6% between 1997 and 2007. Fig. 1 displays trends in electricity consumption, real GDP, and Gross Capital Formation. The three variables move in the same direction and describe a positive trend during the period of the study. Over the last decade of the study period, electricity consumption has outpaced real GDP, denoting the growing demand for electricity. The Burkinabe economy is a young and growing economy. Electric energy production is thus an essential element to support its growth needs. The modernization of traditional economic sectors and the continuous expansion of secondary and tertiary sectors create new energy needs that increase the national consumption of electricity. Electricity needs come from three main sources: households, public administration, and the commercial and industrial sectors. Over the period 1988–2003, the commercial and industrial sectors accounted for 54.52% of the total electricity consumption; that of households was 27.61%, and public administration consumed 17.37%. The consumption for the primary sector was very low, about 0.50%.To date, no study has been carried out on the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Burkina Faso. Yet, this type of analysis is necessary in the context of liberalization in which the energy sector is involved these last years. This paper aims to fill this gap. Using the bounds testing approach to cointegration and the Granger causality test, this study empirically establishes the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Burkina Faso, and further elaborates on the implications and possible forecasts for the new direction of the national energy policy. This paper is organized as follows. Section 2 describes the energy sector in Burkina Faso and Section 3 provides a brief review of literature related to energy consumption and economic growth. Section 4 outlines the methodology used in the study. Following, Section 5 presents the empirical results of the research and the last section concludes the study.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
This study aimed at determining the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Burkina Faso. The bound testing approach to cointegration proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) detected a cointegrating relationship between the series studied when electricity consumption and GDP were considered as the dependent variable. The results of Granger test showed that there is no causal relationship between electricity consumption and investment. However, these results suggest that in the short-run and the long-run there is a bidirectional relationship between electricity consumption and real GDP. There is also evidence of a positive feedback relationship between GDP and capital formation. These results suggest that Burkina Faso is a country dependent on electric energy, and that it is also a country where electricity consumption grows with the income level. From a policy point of view, the results highlight the importance of energy policy on economic growth, and household welfare particularly, in the context of poverty alleviation. Given the fact that the majority of the people of Burkina Faso are denied access to the use of electricity combined with the obsolescence of the energy infrastructure, investments and measures meant to increase electricity supply should be implemented. Thus, the current energy policy and the electricity sector restructuring process should be designed to meet this goal. The Government and SONABEL must implement policies in such a way that electricity should not be an obstacle to development. Relying mainly on imported electricity and fuels to meet the needs of the country generally leads to electricity rationing. This type of energy conservation policy can have a negative impact on economic activity considering the high proportion of companies relying exclusively on this source of energy. Developing other sources of energy such as solar energy and bio-energy, could help in attaining this goal.