|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|112165||2018||9 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||9076 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Economic Modelling, Volume 68, January 2018, Pages 32-40
To understand Chinese monetary policy, we estimate a forward-looking Taylor-type monetary policy reaction function. The novelty of our paper lies in two aspects. The first is to use a composite overall indicator (the Sun-MP index) to tackle the measurement uncertainty and hence the model selection problem (i.e., a Taylor versus McCallum rule). The second is to capture nonlinearities in the PBC's policy responses with the multiple-regime threshold regression model. We find strong evidence that the PBC's policy reaction function is asymmetric during the post-2000 period and switches across three different regimes. When expecting high inflation, the PBC tightens by adjusting various policy tools; while facing an expected economic slowdown, it eases. However, it is tolerant to low inflation and economic overheating; it barely reacts to them. These findings highlight the importance of allowing for regime switches in modelling the policy response function of a âyoungâ and fast evolving central bank in emerging countries like China.