شرایط تجارت، رشد بهره وری و حساب جاری
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|11241||2000||25 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||محاسبه نشده|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Journal of Monetary Economics , Volume 45, Issue 3, June 2000, Pages 587–611
This paper extends the analytical framework provided by Glick and Rogoff (1995. Journal of Monetary Economics 35, 159–192) to an economy with traded and nontraded goods, and it analyzes the impact of country-specific and global productivity shocks on the current account and investment. Each of these disturbances have different implications for the current account and investment that are largely consistent with the empirical results. First, the current account responds more than investment to country-specific traded productivity growth. Second, global traded productivity and country-specific nontraded productivity growth have no effect on the current account, but they have a significant impact on investment. Third, the global component of nontraded productivity is negligible and has no significant impact on either the current account or investment. In addition, the response of the current account and investment to relative prices (the terms of trade and exchange rate) are insignificant. This paper also discusses the potential reasons for it.
One of the most important contributions of the intertemporal approach to macroeconomics has been in the study of international capital flows and the current account behavior. Sachs (1981), for instance, applied this framework to the less developed countries’ current account deficits in the 1970s, and interpreted these deficits as responses to favorable terms of trade movements. Sachs’ study represents an earlier attempt to explain data using a relatively simple (two-period) intertemporal model and reduced form cross-country regression equations. Since then a large theoretical literature has extended the basic intertemporal approach to the current account and has introduced a much richer dynamics into the model. One strand in the literature has studied the international transmission of aggregate output fluctuations using stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models in which aggregate productivity shocks are the main source of fluctuations. Based on this framework, some researchers have employed numerical solution techniques in which predetermined model parameters are used to generate simulated variances of and correlations between endogenous model variables (cf. Backus et al., 1994; Stockman and Tesar, 1995). Recently, Glick and Rogoff (1995) have introduced an innovative approach to study macroeconomic relationships in an open economy. Their approach involved deriving analytically tractable current account and investment equations when there are global and country-specific productivity shocks. In a nutshell their model makes two predictions. First, country-specific productivity shocks affect the current account more than investment, because both consumption and investment respond to changes in productivity inducing a larger response by the current account. Second, global productivity shocks have no impact on the current account because, in the face of a global shock, countries with similar endowments and technologies adjust their consumption and investment symmetrically. Glick and Rogoff also econometrically estimate the model using data from the G-7 countries and find evidence which supports these predictions. This paper extends the analytical framework laid out by Glick and Rogoff (1995) to an economy with traded and nontraded goods. As I discuss in Section 2, the existence of traded and nontraded goods introduces additional features into the analysis. In this case, country-specific productivity growth affects the current account more than investment only when the change in productivity originates from the tradable goods sector. When the country-specific productivity growth originates from the nontradables, the model predicts that the current account and investment would respond by about the same in absolute value. Since, by definition, domestic consumption of nontradables equals domestic output, there should be no consumption smoothing of nontradables across borders. Thus, the main impact of nontradable productivity growth on the current account results from changes in investment. On the other hand, when adjustment in individual countries is roughly symmetrical, global productivity shocks, whether they originate from traded or from nontraded sectors, are predicted to have no impact on the current account. The model therefore implies additional transmission mechanisms of output fluctuations in open economies (see also Tesar, 1993). Aside from these intertemporal considerations, there are also novel intratemporal issues that arise in the context of tradables and nontradables. Specifically, in a two-sector model, sector specific productivity shocks cause relative price movements which alter both investment and consumption decisions (cf. Brock, 1988; Gavin, 1990). The analytical framework employed in this paper captures these intratemporal effects by the relative price of nontradables (the real exchange rate). By incorporating both intratemporal and intertemporal effects, the extended model therefore provides a richer framework for analyzing the current account and investment dynamics. Furthermore, by distinguishing between tradable and nontradable goods, the paper emphasizes the importance of international trade in transmitting output fluctuations across borders. While relative price movements as measured by the real exchange rate may have significant influence on the current account and investment dynamics, a large literature in international macroeconomics has also investigated the impact of terms of trade movements on aggregate variables. In fact, some authors find these movements pervasive in explaining output fluctuations. For instance, in a cross-country study, Mendoza (1995, p. 127) reports that the terms of trade shocks can account up to 88% of the variation in some countries’ GDP. This may suggest that the explanatory power of an intertemporal model would be improved substantially by taking the terms of trade effects into consideration. Since the terms of trade and the real exchange rate are closely related (cf. Gavin, 1990), the model provides a suitable framework to incorporate various sources of the current account and investment fluctuations into the analysis. Given that the distinction between country-specific and global productivity growth in traded and nontraded sectors is central to this study, Section 3 provides an overview of the cross-country and cross-sector correlations of total factor productivity (TFP), as well as the terms of trade movements in the G-7 countries from 1970 to 1987. The fact that within-country correlations of tradable–nontradable productivity growth are weak suggests that additional information about the current account and investment dynamics can be gleaned from a separate analysis of these two sectors. Section 4 verifies some of the stylized facts concerning the current account and investment correlations, and presents the main findings of this paper. The results show that each of the productivity variables considered here have different implications for the current account and investment. First, the current account responds more than investment to country-specific traded productivity growth. Second, global traded productivity has no effect on the current account, but it has a significant impact on investment. Third, only investment responds to changes in country-specific nontraded productivity. Fourth, the global component of nontraded productivity has no statistically significant influence on either the current account or investment. The response of the current account and investment to relative prices (the terms of trade and exchange rate) are also found to be insignificant. This section also discusses the potential reasons for these insignificant correlations. Section 5 concludes the paper.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
This paper has developed a tractable two-sector open economy model and estimated the current account and investment equations for the G-7 countries. It is assumed that there are four distinct sources of productivity growth; country-specific and global productivity growth in both tradables and nontradables. Each of these disturbances have different implications for the current account and investment dynamics, and these are found to be largely consistent with the regression results. Based on these considerations the model performs very well.Another important feature of the analysis is that (induced) changes in relative prices also have reallocation effects in addition to those implied by the productivity growth. Although these effects are in general difficult to estimate, under the identifying assumption that productivity growth is the main source of output fluctuations, inclusion of relative prices in the reduced form equations help reduce the omitted variable bias. In deriving the reduced form investment and the current account equations, the paper closely followed the innovative approach proposed by Glick and Rogoff (1995). In fact, the analysis presented here allowed for nontraded goods that Glick and Rogoff (1995, p. 186) identified as a possible extension of their model. The results presented here demonstrate the usefulness of this extension, and extend their stylized facts.