مدل ارزیابی فازی نظریه گزینه واقعی برای سرمایه گذاری برنامه ریزی منابع سازمانی
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|1186||2012||15 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||محاسبه نشده|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Journal of Engineering and Technology Management, Volume 29, Issue 1, January–March 2012, Pages 47–61
The high failure rate of ERP implementation is due to a common pitfall that ERP projects are often enacted as merely investment into installation of IT infrastructure, rather than systematic planning of operation changes, business process re-engineering and a paradigm shift for the operation and management. To manage ERP investment in a changing environment for high payoff, this paper adopts a real option theoretic method. Fuzzy payoff valuation is introduced to deal with uncertainties in order to minimize the risk of failure. The proposed ERP evaluation model is geared towards small and medium enterprises. A case study is presented to validate the proposed fuzzy real options. The results indicate the potential of modeling ERP investment as “Expand”, “Contain” and “Abandon” options in different scenarios. The fuzzy real option model bestows a novel ex-ante cost analysis for justifying ERP investment in the implementation cycle.
Enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems are integrated systems proposed for seamless information transfer between business functions, promising to deliver mesmerizing business benefits that include standardizing processes across multiple business units, consistent information base across the entire organization and reducing cost (Lozinsky, 1998, Blackwell et al., 2006 and Papiernik, 2001). Successful ERP implementation can achieve operational improvements, including reduction of time to market, reduction in cycle time, product development time, improvement in operation, reduction of inventory cost (Stein, 1999) and higher customer satisfaction level (Al-Mashari, 2002). Reaction time to competitive pressures and market opportunities could also be improved by technology (Badawy, 2009). However, these success examples are only minority. Statistical data from the past studies found out that 70% of ERP implementation projects fail to achieve the expected goals set prior to the implementation (Buckhout et al., 1999). Examples of failure are abundant. FoxMeyer Drug went bankrupt in 1996 and filed a US$500 million lawsuit against SAP, blaming for its woes (Key, 1998). Unisource Worldwide, Inc wrote off US$168 million as it abandoned the nationwide implementation of ERP software (Stein, 1998). Dell abandoned the SAP implementation after months of delays and cost overruns, claiming that SAP was too monolithic to be altered for changing business needs. The list continues, but yet does not deter the trend that ERP systems are changing from a competitive advantage to a basic integrated system for enterprises.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
This paper reports a Real Option Theory with Fuzzy payoff method for evaluating ERP system investment. The method introduces active management in dealing with uncertainties in order to minimize the risk of failure and maximize the benefits of an ERP system to the enterprise. Within the implementation lifecycle, ex-ante cost analysis and business environment have been particularly looked into, respectively suggesting the application of Real Option Theory (Fuzzy payoff method). Throughout the lengthy implementation process, uncertainty is the main culprit that causes most of the failures. Application of Real Option Theory in ex-ante cost analysis proposes resolving of uncertainties by treating ERP implementation as a compound option. Fuzzy payoff method is used in the real option valuation for analysis the return of investment. The result suggests that real option model provides flexibility in constantly changing environment where practitioners can adjust plans to evolving environment. Uncertainties can be leveraged on so as to capture the upside benefits and to contain the downside losses. Majority of existing literatures are done on large enterprises, less studies had been done on SMEs. Lacking of both financial and human resources as compared to those large enterprises, a useful implementation guidelines and decision support model are essential for the SMEs in adopting an ERP system. The true measure of the value of a model is applicability and transparent in the sense that staff can perceive the inner working so as to influence their behavior and make right decision at right time. Instead of providing a complex model that cannot be understood by most SME staff, the contribution of this paper is to provide a simplified but novel approach with Fuzzy based Real Option Theory for supporting SME management to make decision at various stage of ERP implementation. Because of the inherent limitation of investment evaluation method, there are two limitations which are intrinsic limitation and valuation limitation in this study. For intrinsic limitation, it is required to estimate the future expected cash flow and cost which may be varies based on different assumptions and calculation methods. However, companies which have similar scale, project investment pattern and similar business environment can use the case study in this paper as reference. For valuation limitation, it is difficult for the investors to determine the real value of the asset. However, the propose method has attempted to interpret those uncertainty in terms of fuzzy number rather than crisp number. Future studies may focus on formulating the ERP implementation in new theories, such as robustness analysis, and sensitivity analysis. Robustness analysis is a method of addressing uncertainty using robustness score between 0 and 1. Sensitivity analysis can be the extension of Real Option Model, investigating the range of performance outcome for each phase of implementation and how can the outcome be categorized as successful or unsuccessful.