بدهی های عمومی، اوراق قرضه دولتی و توسعه پایدار در رومانی
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|23621||2014||9 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||4610 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Procedia Economics and Finance, Volume 8, 2014, Pages 353–361
The rapid increase in the government debt under the circumstances of the global crisis persistence and financial markets volatility raises the need for a new approach of public debt sustainability, including for Romania. Despite more intense contagion effects according to global markets connectivity, the importance of country specificity in the assessment of sovereign risk, which is decisive in dimensioning the borrowing costs, has grown. In the case of Romania, a sharp deterioration of its fiscal framework strength has been observed during post-crisis period, the public debt-to-GDP ratio currently reaching around 40%, thus doubling as compared to 2008. The structural analysis of government debt portfolio highlighted the main drivers of excessive public indebtedness and the increase in refinancing (rollover) risk on short term, which is supposed to overlap with the exchange rate and interest rate risks on medium and long term. Several indicators of Romania's debt sustainability are already on the warning levels edge which requires appropriate policies focusing on economic growth recovery, fiscal consolidation ongoing, increasing capacity of generating budgetary revenues, public debt management improvement. Maintaining the financial stability and the investment grade of sovereign risk are decisive for the development of Romania on a sustainable path.
The absence of a consensus on international financial markets regulations and the excess of global capital flows and of risk exposures, including the derivative financial instruments, has led to a gradual split between the monetary and the real economy. The crisis triggered in the USA in 2007-2008 had contagious effects at the global level,favoured by the interconnected financial markets channels.The increase in risk aversion and the deterioration of the post-crisis business climate, along with the banking system crisis and the credit contraction have finally degenerated into a recession of advanced economies which has been extended at the world scale.After having seemingly recovered in 2010, the global growth decreased in 2011 and 2012 when the EU countries turned back into recession, which has been maintained in 2013, too (IMF, 2013,b). Looking ahead to the year 2014, the global growth is expected to remain modest, while macroeconomic risks are maintained, including from the view point of the financial stability, with increasing market and liquidity risks (IMF, 2013a).The Euro Zone has been mostly affected by the impact of the global crisis. The bailout of the banking system in 2008-2009 required huge budgetary allocations which have brought about a serious deterioration of the public finances, especially in the Euro Zone periphery. On the UE 27, the government public debt has increased from 58.9% of GDP in 2007 to 93.4% at the end of June 2013 (Eurostat, 2013a, 2013b). Overcoming the sustenability debt level, in order to face due payments, Greece, Ireland and Portugal have received emergency financial packages from IMF-EU.The austerity programmes adopted by the EU countries in view of fiscal adjustements, by severe budgetary constraints, have hindered their post-crisis economy relaunch and have brought about social tensions. Though steps have been taken, the european leaders’ commitements looked for public finance consolidation, financial systems rebuilding, setting a banking union in the Euro Zone witch haven’t been achieved until now, „the sovereign debt crisis” threat being still existent. In time, the high levels of public indebtedness in almost all the important advanced countries and the persistance of financial breaking up in the Euro Zone may lead to a new crisis occurence (IMF,2013,b).Romania has also suffered a significant increase in the public debt, which, though being situated below the level established by the Maastricht Treaty and under the one registered in the advanced states of the EU, the current high debt service may create payment issues that can endanger the sovereign risk and the development perspectives. In this study we have tried to analyse the evolution of the public debt, mainly focused on the central goverment debt, and to identify its main growth factors in the last years. We will try to show that some indicators which reflect Romania’s indebtedness public degree are already at unsus tenable levels and to reveal some guiding steps to be taken, which may contribute to the maintenance of the financial stability of the country and to allow its coursing toward a durable development trajectory
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
the situation of Romania’s public debt has significantly deteriorated in the last years, endangering the stability of the our country’s internal and external financial framework, both on the short, medium and long term. Against the background of the economic vulnerabilities widening, subdued to the external shock of the global crisis, the public debt issue being seen through the public interest light, we believe that its sustainability seems to be undermined from the inside, too.If the main economic causes which have led to the sovereign loans boom are connected to the budgetary deficit and current account increases, implicitly to the rise in Romania’s internal and external financing requirements, we consider that at their origin there were extra economic factors, which have proved to have a major impact. These were errors of economic policies, with a multiplying adverse effects, among which: expansionary budgetary policies; ignoring the phenomenon of deepening the financial imbalances for years and the risk of FDI flows slowing down by which these ones were financed;the lack of appropriate logistics in order to absorb European structural funds which could compensate partially the growing financing gap covering; the incapacity to notice the signs of the global crisis occured in the early 2007 and to foresee the potential effects on Romania;the lack of reaction to the crisis shock which hit Romania and the inability to adopt post -crisis policies and measures capable of mitigating the adverse effects and to relaunch the economy as soon as possible.The main factor of the public debt explosion in the years 2009 and 2010 was represented by the 20 bn euro IMF -EU loan, which had only a role of supporting the state vital functions, not having effects on the identification of any real remedies for the correction of the imbalance, corresponding to the requirements of Romania’s sustainable development.As it comes out from our study, Romania’s public in debtedness increased to around 40% of GDP being already situated at the highest ceiling of sustainability level in the particular case of our country, some of the indicators revealing even an exceeding of the warning benchmarks. We think that the main factor of macroeconomic and financial recovery is represented by achieving a primary balance surplus as a prerequisite of the debt burden reduction, as well as of its costs. As for the fiscal consolid ation, in our opinion, among the factors of public finances sustainability are:xchanging the budgetary vision into a pro -active one, following the use of budgetary instruments in order to achieve a sustainable development, aimed to set an d maintain a trend of budgetary revenues increase; x refraining from taxes increase, or introducing new ones as sources of supplementing revenues, both at the central and local level, which infringe the commitments of maintaining the stability and predictability of the fiscal regime, having adverse effects, inclusively on the business environment deterioration and the FDI reduction, as recent experience has demonstrated; x setting up a strict budgetary discipline as far as local and central administration expenditures are concerned, both for the one related to the staff and maintainance and to the public acquisitions x giving absolute priority to the investments and financial resources necessary for supporting the European structural funds absorption and exports promotion; xrespecting the commitments,the international ones as well regarding the achievement of the Europe 2020 strategic objectives, by alloting 6% of GDP to Education and 2% of GDP to Research &Development, sectors indecline, decissive onthe long -term for the economy relaunching and for Romania’s sustainable development. x fighting the fiscal evasion by drastic measures, which has been maintained at a high level, by both individuals andcompanies,inclusively by off -shore accounts and the price transfer practicesof multinationals. Beside the achievement of primary balance surpluses, among other factors which can contribute to the increse of the public debt sustainability can be mentioned: x ameliorating the methodologies and statistics quality in the pu blic debt field, which can ensure the comparabilityand and compatibility of the data series,an essential condition of the analysis, respectively of studies pertinence,as a basis of adopting the most adequate policies/measures,both for neutral researchers and the directly involvedstaff from institutional structures; x standardizing annual reports concerning public debt management, which can facilitate the analytic approach and informing the population about issues of high interest; x elaborating strategies of public debt management based on real internal and international environment assessment, predicting essential measures aimed to reducethe debt burden, imposing sustainability standards specific to Romania and ensuring the consistency of guiding lines(ceilings), respectively targets of risk exposures; xsetting stricts limits for government bonds issues for refinancing the public debt and the significant reduction, in thisway, of Romania’s gross financing needs; x optimizing debt portfolio and putting under control the refinancing, the interest rate and the currency risks based on real fundamentals of risk management in the particular case of Romania.The decrease of Romania’s public indebtedness and the amelioration of financial and macroeconomic stability parameters allow the maintaining of the sovereign risk in the”investment grade” category, which can contribute, in adecisive manner, to the public finance sustainability and the durable development of the country.