امنیت اجتماعی و مهاجرت با ارتقاء مهارت درونی
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|24049||2003||25 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||محاسبه نشده|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Journal of Public Economics, Volume 87, Issues 3–4, March 2003, Pages 773–797
The aim of the paper is to investigate the joint redistributive effects of migration and pensions and to reassess the sustainability issue raised in the existing economic literature. The paper first develops a theoretical framework to analyse the impact of international migration on the labour market. The model allows for heterogeneity across native-born individuals and for migrants to affect both the wages and the education decision in the recipient country. It then explicitly focuses on pensions under alternative migration scenarios. The analysis shows that migration causes redistributive effects which increase across-group wage inequality. However, the endogenous educational response by residents partially offsets the redistributive impact of migration while creating additional interest groups. Migration helps the financial sustainability of the pension scheme but the interaction between migration and pensions causes complex inter- and intragenerational redistributive conflicts, which are analysed in the paper.
All major industrial countries are facing economic problems related to population ageing. The declining birth rates and the rising longevity have increased the elderly dependency ratio: according to OECD (1998b), there are currently about two people aged 65 and older for every ten people aged 15–64 in the OECD countries. By 2030, this ratio is expected to reach three-and-a-half to ten and to stabilise only in 2050 (Lutz, 1996). The increase could be even faster if recent (falling) labour market participation trends continued. Though this process occurs at different rates and with different timing across OECD countries, on average their populations are the oldest in the world. As the share of the elderly in the population of rich countries increases, the cost of paying for pensions and health benefits rises. It is feared that ageing can have dramatic effects on government finances, boosting taxes and placing the government’s ability to finance other expenditure at risk. These demographic trends call for policy reforms, notably in those areas where per capita expenditure for the elderly is particularly high. Public retirement schemes are the natural candidates for reform, especially because their pay-as-you-go financing makes them very sensitive to demographic shocks. Policy makers in developed countries have considered radical reforms undertaken by some developing countries, which replaced part or all of their public systems with private pensions based on individual accounts. In addition international migration, that is, migration from less-developed countries has been argued to be a mitigating factor for a low birth rate1. It is held that migration may have a positive impact on the financial soundness of pension systems and therefore help overcoming their shortfalls (OECD, 1998a and OECD, 1998b; Razin and Sadka, 1998, Razin and Sadka, 1999a and Razin and Sadka, 1999b. The aim of this paper is to investigate the joint redistributive effects of migration and pensions and to reassess the sustainability issue raised by the existing economic literature. The analysis developed in this paper differs from the related literature in that it describes migration not only as a demographic phenomenon increasing the number of contributors to the pension scheme but also as an economic shock perturbing the labour market and initiating inter- and intragenerational transfers. These transfers in turn must be understood to assess costs and benefits of alternative migration and pension policies. We concentrate on the recipient country and first develop a theoretical framework to investigate the impact of migration on the labour market. We allow for heterogeneity across individuals and for migration to affect both the wages and the education choice in the recipient country. We then explicitly focus on social security, which in this paper is synonymous with pension system, and analyse the effects of migration on its sustainability: we evaluate whether migration can complement direct pension reforms. We finally study the joint redistributive effects of migration and social security under alternative migration scenarios. We focus on how migration changes the residents’ lifetime income and social security returns to throw some light on the preferences of residents over migration and social security arrangements. We show that migration causes redistributive effects which increase across-group wage inequality. However, the endogenous educational response by residents partially offsets the redistributive impact of migration, while creating additional interest groups. Agents are differentiated not only according to skill level but also to cost of education, with high cost skilled agents having the same attitude towards migration as unskilled agents. We also show that migration eases the financial problems of pension arrangements but, by increasing the redistribution operated by the social security scheme, it might polarise the preferences of agents and sharpen the opposition to it. A policy that apparently makes the system more sustainable may actually destroy the consensus on it. On the other side, social security schemes can operate as an insurance device and thus contrast the negative effects of migration, were they to appear. The paper is organised as follows: Section 2 presents some facts on international migration and reports how the current literature depicts migration and social security issues; Section 3 introduces and develops the theoretical model and Section 4 reports on conclusions.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
The analysis developed in this paper highlights that migration alleviates the financial problems public retirement systems are going through. However, it also shows that it gives rise to serious redistributive conflicts exactly as do other pension reform proposals like funding or privatisation. Moreover, instead of strengthening the support to the existing pension scheme via the reduction in its solvency problems, migration can undermine it. These results are found under the assumption that all migrants enter the formal labour market and pay contributions to the public retirement scheme. The existence of an informal economy where workers do not pay contributions and are not entitled to receive pensions raises other important issues not discussed here. For example, if migrants work in the informal sector, we may still observe the labour market impact of migration. However, the implications on the social security system sustainability would change. Our analysis provides a public finance assessment of the costs and benefits of migration on a pay-as-you-go pension system. It does not capture all the costs and benefits of migration on the recipient country’s public finance resources. If a social safety net is present, migrants may benefit from it thus increasing the expenditure on welfare; they may also affect the financing of education and health. Our stylised model highlights that, even focusing on the area where the migrants’ impact is expected to be financially positive, international migration raises inter and intragenerational redistributive issues which need to be taken into account. Moreover, to answer pension issues, education and integration policies cannot be left out of the picture.