کارآیی اقتصادی در نیروگاه های باد تجاری در یونان؛ تجزیه و تحلیل حساسیت کامل
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|25532||2000||9 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||4400 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Energy Policy, Volume 28, Issue 8, 1 July 2000, Pages 509–517
The influence of the governing techno-economic parameters on the economic behaviour of commercial wind parks is investigated. For this purpose, a complete cost–benefit analysis model, properly adapted for the Greek market, is developed in order to calculate the pay-back period and the economic efficiency of similar investments in the energy production sector. Moreover, the impact of various parameters — such as capital cost, return on investment index, local inflation rate index, electricity price escalation rate, installation capacity factor, M&O cost, turn-on key cost of the power plant, size of wind turbines used — on the economic viability and attractiveness is extensively investigated, using a well-elaborated simple “expert system” type numerical code. Finally, the prediction results are summarised in a representative sensitivity analysis map, including the most reasonable economic scenarios. Taking into account the analytical results of the proposed study along with the existence of high wind potential regions in Greece, a remarkable growth of the wind energy sector is expected in the near future, leading to considerable investment profits and offering a strong position (share) of the liberalised local power market.
According to the EU Electricity Directive, which came into force on 19 February 1997, 60% of the community's electricity market is opened up to competition during 1999. In Greece, electricity market liberalization will start in February 2001, leading to fundamental changes of the local power industry, (Kleinpeter, 1995). Although liberalization will lead to price competition, which generally is not in favour of renewable generation, this is not the case for Greece. More precisely, the Aegean Archipelago has excellent wind potential, as in many regions the annual mean wind speed at 10 m height is up to 11 m/s (PPC, 1985). On the contrary, the mean electricity production cost of autonomous power stations (APS), used to fulfil the electricity demands for most of the Aegean Sea islands, is extremely high, approaching the value of 50 Drs/kWh (0.15ϵ/kWh). In general, the electricity production cost of a medium-size APS is approximately three times higher than the corresponding marginal cost of Greek PPC, approaching the 0.25ϵ/kWh. Finally, Greeces dependency on imported fuel (≈70% of its domestic energy consumption is imported), leads to a considerable exchange loss, especially with countries outside the EU, (Kaldellis and Kodossakis, 1999). For all the above-mentioned reasons, the Greek State is strongly subsidizing private investments in the area of wind energy applications, either via the 2601/98 development law or via the “Energy Operation Program” of the Ministry of Development. As a result, requests for more than 350 MW of new wind parks exist in the Min. of Development, in order to take advantage of the subsidization by 40% of the total cost of the project (Kaldellis and Kodossakis, 1999). The present work is concentrated on the examination of the economic viability and efficiency of wind turbine (WT) installations in Greece. Accordingly, the impact of the governing techno-economic parameters on the behaviour of wind power plants is investigated. For this purpose, a complete sensitivity analysis, properly adapted for the local market, is carried out, in order to encourage the decision makers to invest in the wind power market, even under the existing unsteady worldwide techno-economic situations. The results of the proposed analysis, for the most reasonable economic scenarios, are summarised in the last part of the study, using a representative sensitivity analysis map for commercial wind turbines.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
A complete cost–benefit method, concerning the economic viability and attractiveness of commercial wind power installations, is presented. Accordingly, a numerical code is developed in an “expert- type” mode, properly adapted for the Greek market. Finally, a quite extensive sensitivity analysis is carried out, in order to demonstrate the impact of the main techno-economic parameters on the economic behaviour (pay-back period, economic efficiency for ten and twenty years operation) of similar applications on the wind energy sector and to minimize the uncertainness of the investment decision makers. According to the results obtained, it is concluded that the vast majority of wind energy applications in Greece is one of the most promising investments in the energy production sector. Besides, wind power stations can fulfil the energy requirements for almost all islands of the Aegean Archipelago. It is also worth mentioning that their profitability is very sensitive to changes of the capital cost, the capacity factor (mean power coefficient, technical availability), the electricity escalation rate and the first installation cost. It is slightly less sensitive to changes of the M&O cost. The direct impact of the nominal power (for commercial wind turbines) and the inflation rate on the pay-back period of similar ventures seem to be limited. In view of the uncertain future concerning the fuel worldwide reserves and the continuous deterioration of the environment, a progressive interest in the wind energy applications is taking place in all European countries. Therefore, taking into account the extensive results of the proposed analysis along with the existence of high wind potential regions in Greece, a remarkable growth of the wind energy sector is expected (400 MW increase is the national target by 2005) leading to considerable investment profits and offering a strong position (share) on the liberalized local power market.