اصلاح فیلتر کالمن در پیش بینی زمان واقعی با استفاده از مدل هیدرودینامیک
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|26650||2008||7 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||2876 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Journal of Hydrodynamics, Ser. B, Volume 20, Issue 3, June 2008, Pages 391–397
Accurate and reliable flood forecast is crucial for efficient real-time river management, including flood control, flood warning, reservoir operation and river regulation. In order to improve the estimate of the initial state of the forecasting system and to reduce the errors in the forecast period a data assimilation procedure was often need. The Kalman filter was proven to be an efficient method to adjust real-time flood series and improve the initial conditions before the forecast. A new model integrating the hydraulic model with the Kalman filter for real-time correction of flood forecast was developed and applied in the Three Gorges interzone of the Yangtze River. The method was calibrated and verified against the observed flood stage and discharge during Three Gorges Dam construction periods (2004). The results demonstrate that the new model incorporates an accurate and fast updating technique can improve the reliability of the flood forecast.