دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 26655
عنوان فارسی مقاله

طراحی تغییر فناوری برای بهبود برنامه ریزی فناوری فضایی و سیستم های مدیریت

کد مقاله سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی تعداد کلمات
26655 2011 9 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید محاسبه نشده
خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.
عنوان انگلیسی
Projecting technology change to improve space technology planning and systems managementProjecting technology change to improve space technology planning and systems management
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Acta Astronautica, Volume 68, Issues 7–8, April–May 2011, Pages 853–861

کلمات کلیدی
پیش بینی فناوری - برنامه ریزی فناوری - مدیریت سیستم ها - برنامه ریزی استراتژیک
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله طراحی تغییر فناوری برای بهبود برنامه ریزی فناوری فضایی و سیستم های مدیریت

چکیده انگلیسی

Projecting technology performance evolution has been improving over the years. Reliable quantitative forecasting methods have been developed that project the growth, diffusion, and performance of technology in time, including projecting technology substitutions, saturation levels, and performance improvements. These forecasts can be applied at the early stages of space technology planning to better predict available future technology performance, assure the successful selection of technology, and improve technology systems management strategy. Often what is published as a technology forecast is simply scenario planning, usually made by extrapolating current trends into the future, with perhaps some subjective insight added. Typically, the accuracy of such predictions falls rapidly with distance in time. Quantitative technology forecasting (QTF), on the other hand, includes the study of historic data to identify one of or a combination of several recognized universal technology diffusion or substitution patterns. In the same manner that quantitative models of physical phenomena provide excellent predictions of system behavior, so do QTF models provide reliable technological performance trajectories. In practice, a quantitative technology forecast is completed to ascertain with confidence when the projected performance of a technology or system of technologies will occur. Such projections provide reliable time-referenced information when considering cost and performance trade-offs in maintaining, replacing, or migrating a technology, component, or system. This paper introduces various quantitative technology forecasting techniques and illustrates their practical application in space technology and technology systems management.

مقدمه انگلیسی

Quantitative technology forecasting (QTF) can provide insight into the progress of space development, from projecting patterns in exploratory launches to identifying the nexus of technology performance trends and requirements for extended space travel. The quantitative analysis of technology change can improve policy, resource allocation, and investment decisions in all space-related activities, as QTF analysis have advantaged other industries. The application of QTF tools can be a significant strategic element in space technology planning.

نتیجه گیری انگلیسی

Quantitative technology forecasting includes the study of historic data to identify one of, or a combination of, several recognized universal technology diffusion or substitution patterns useful in strategic technology management. This paper has introduced various quantitative technology forecasting techniques and illustrated their practical application for purposes of space program technology and technology systems planning.

خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.