سیاست های پولی و وام دهی بانک ها به شرکت های کوچک
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|27534||2012||8 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||6390 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 34, Issue 3, September 2012, Pages 741–748
This paper presents an empirical test of the balance sheet channel of monetary policy. I take advantage of a panel data set containing nearly all domestic banks to search for an adjustment in lending patterns induced by changes in the stance of monetary policy. I find that in response to monetary policy tightening, banks decrease the proportion of credit extended to high-agency-cost “small” borrowers. Additionally, I provide evidence that this result is in fact driven by a balance sheet effect working on small borrowers rather than on small lenders.
Understanding how monetary policy is transmitted to the real economy is central to the study of macroeconomics. However, it has been established that the policy induced changes in the cost of capital are insufficient to explain the subsequent magnitude, timing, and composition of the economic response.2 To reconcile this, the traditional “interest-rate view” has been augmented by theoretical and empirical evidence of a so-called credit channel of monetary policy. Models of the credit channel show that financial market imperfections amplify the effects of monetary policy through at least two distinct sub-channels. As described in Bernanke and Blinder (1988), the “bank lending channel” predicts a decline in the aggregate level of credit extended by banks in response to a monetary tightening. While this channel arises due to lower system-wide reserves, thereby leading to a reduction in the supply of intermediated credit, an additional “balance sheet channel” described by Bernanke and Gertler (1989) predicts a disruption in credit extension as a result of procyclical movement in borrowers’ financial positions caused by monetary tightening. With imperfect information and heterogeneous borrowers, models of the credit channel predict tighter credit standards that lower the share of loans extended to less credit-worthy firms.3 If financial intermediaries respond to higher real interest rates with a “flight to quality” as argued by Bernanke et al. (1996), then this compositional shift in banks’ loan portfolios is part of the monetary transmission mechanism. The primary purpose of this paper is to identify the balance sheet channel of monetary policy even if the interest rate and bank lending channels operate simultaneously. While there has been relatively strong evidence for a credit channel of monetary policy in recent years (summarized in Mishkin, 2007), many papers fail to differentiate between the bank lending and balance sheet hypotheses (e.g. Gertler and Gilchrist, 1994, Kashyap et al., 1994 and Morgan, 1998). There is also a body of work that finds support for a specific channel, but either uses aggregate data as in Lang and Nakamura (1995) or disaggregate data specific to a single sector (Gertler and Gilchrist, 1994, Kashyap et al., 1993 and Oliner and Rudebusch, 1995). Although strong evidence is reported in each of the aforementioned studies, each limitation presents a disadvantage. First, making use of aggregate data precludes the identification of heterogeneity amongst financial intermediaries and/or borrowers. Secondly, employing narrow sectoral data potentially poses a sampling problem. To the extent that a single sector (e.g. manufacturing) is not representative of the aggregate economy, one must be cautious in drawing conclusions or making policy decisions. In this paper, I analyze data on virtually all domestic banks to conclude that banks exhibit a significant flight to quality in response to a monetary tightening. Using similar data, Kashyap and Stein, 2000 and Kashyap and Stein, 1994 demonstrate the importance of controlling for bank-level characteristics and demonstrate that smaller banks exhibit lending patters that are consistent with the bank lending channel. In this paper, I examine the share of bank loans extended to small businesses to argue that similar patterns emerge in the manifestation of the balance sheet channel. In response to a shift towards tighter monetary policy, banks adjust the composition of their loan portfolios away from small, high-agency-cost borrowers.4 According to the US Small Business Administration, small businesses employ half of all private sector employees and account for more than half of all private sector output. Thus, distributional effects of monetary policy propagated through the balance sheet channel are of interest to a broad array of policy makers and advocacy groups alike. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 describes the strategy used to identify the balance sheet channel. Section 3 outlines the data used, presents the estimated model, and describes the econometric method used. Section 4 contains the results of the estimation, and Section 5 concludes.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
The existence of channels for monetary policy operating beyond the interest-rate channel has been well documented in recent years. Although the credit channel has been singled out as an additional transmission mechanism, the means by which it operates have been more difficult to determine. The evidence presented here suggests that a balance sheet channel of monetary policy is in operation in the United States and has an economically significant impact. Furthermore, the operation of this mechanism is demonstrated irrespective of whether a bank lending channel operates simultaneously. This differentiation is in contrast to previous studies that find support for a credit channel, but fail to isolate the bank lending and balance sheet hypotheses. The present paper also casts a wider net than studies that focus analysis on relatively small samples of banks or borrowers from narrowly defined sectors. This study provides support for the existence of a balance sheet channel that works through many different banks. Specifically, banks appear to shift the balance of their C&I and commercial real estate loan portfolios away from small firms in response to tighter monetary policy. This effect is particularly strong among smaller banks, which remain a major source of credit for small businesses. As these results show, monetary policy can influence the share of intermediated credit extended to small businesses through a mechanism consistent with the operation of a balance sheet channel. However, the findings presented here are also consistent with the concurrent operation of the recently developed risk-taking channel (Borio and Zhu, 2008). The results therefore demonstrate the importance of future work that seeks to identify a distinct risk-taking channel in the United States. With respect to the importance for the business cycle, the results for the C&I loans in particular are very compelling since C&I loans are used to carry inventories and finance investment – components that often account for a substantial portion of business cycle fluctuations. Ultimately, the findings in this study demonstrate a manifestation of the types of financial frictions that are assumed by previous studies to generate asymmetry in firm spending/investment outcomes after a monetary tightening. Thus, by demonstrating banks’ relative movement out of loans to small businesses in response to monetary tightening, this paper adds to the growing catalogue of empirical research on monetary transmission.