"تحرک سرمایه در کشورهای شرق آسیا خیلی بالا نیست": بررسی تاثیر ضدعفونی کردن در جریان سرمایه
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|27817||2013||10 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||محاسبه نشده|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : China Economic Review, Volume 24, March 2013, Pages 55–64
This paper examines how international capital mobility can be affected by sterilization activities for seven East Asian economies. We develop a model that shows how sterilization measures by a central bank can lead to a reduction in a country's capital mobility. Using data from 1980 to 2006, we then derive sterilization intensities and capital mobility estimates for our countries, and discover that conventional measures overstate the degree of capital mobility due to their failure to adjust for sterilization actions. Our findings are important for policy makers since using our modified estimates will help to better understand the magnitude of capital mobility when central banks exercise sterilization to dampen the effect of capital inflows.
The last three decades have witnessed an unprecedented surge in the flows of financial capital across national borders. Due to financial deregulation in many countries, as well as technical and financial innovations, financial markets have become more globally integrated and capital mobility has risen since the 1970s (see, inter alia, Kim, Oh, and Jeong (2005) and Goldstein (1995)). However, foreign capital is regarded as a mixed blessing for the recipient countries. On the one hand, foreign capital inflows are desirable as they help finance domestic investment and foster economic growth. On the other hand, the appreciation of the real exchange rate that frequently accompanies these capital inflows weakens the competitiveness of the trade sector and expands existing current account deficits. Moreover, a sudden reversal of foreign capital flows can trigger financial crises, as has occurred on a number of occasions in the last two decades.1 East Asian economies around the Pacific Rim have received particular attention from international investors and economists because of their decades-long sustained economic growth, sound macroeconomic policies, and coordinated responses to inflows of international capital. As Fig. 1 shows, Asian economies received approximately $100 billion in net capital inflows in 1996, the year before the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis. Although the capital inflows reversed temporarily between 1997 and 1999, there has been a resurgence of capital inflows since 2000. Asian economies received net capital inflows of $128 billion in 2004 alone. These Asian economies include four Newly Industrialized Economies (NIEs) (Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan) and twenty-six developing countries. According to a report from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Asian economies received $269 billion in capital inflows in 2006. Although Asian governments are in a far better position to respond to financial shocks than a decade ago, these enormous foreign capital inflows put upward pressures on national currencies and asset prices, which have become new problems for Asian economies to manage (Ying & Kim, 2001). The rise in inflows poses a challenge for the countries' monetary authorities. The primary goals of central banks in East Asian economies include providing monetary stability and conducting autonomous monetary policies. Therefore, persistent capital inflows force authorities to exercise aggressive sterilization. The sterilization of capital inflows may meet the aforementioned goals, but interest rates in the recipient countries will persistently be higher than in the rest of the world.2 Using a sample obtained between 1981:01 and 1994:12, Moreno (1996) finds that the monetary authorities in both Korea and Taiwan are more tolerant of an increase in domestic credit than an increase in foreign assets. Wu and Wang (2003) demonstrate that Singapore exercised nearly perfect sterilization from 1984 to 1995 by moving pension funds from commercial banks to its central bank. Thailand and Indonesia have transferred public deposits from commercial banks to their central banks. Based on evidence of aggressive sterilization by East Asian central banks, it is not surprising to find a sizeable interest rate differential between domestic and foreign assets. Therefore, the use of either uncovered or covered interest parity to measure international capital mobility may be confounded by the active monetary policies of Asian central banks. Failing to understand or accurately measure capital mobility levels in capital recipient countries may result in substantial costs. For example, sterilization can be very costly and ineffective for a country with near perfect capital mobility, in which the government issues high-yield assets and increases holdings of low-yield foreign assets; this policy will fail to reduce the interest rate differential and attract further capital inflows.3 Our paper seeks to add insights in a few key areas. First, East Asian economies have heavily sterilized capital inflows to maintain their fixed or highly managed floating exchange rate regimes (Chinn and Dooley, 1997, Kwack, 2001, Moreno, 1996 and Takagi and Esaka, 2001). However, the true extent of international capital mobility in East Asian economies practicing sterilization is not well known. We examine international capital mobility in the presence of central bank sterilization for seven East Asian economies: Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. We seek to understand the scope of and changes in international capital mobility in these countries over time, as they have experienced periods of liberalization, changes in the extent of their integration into the world economy, and financial crises. Second, if aggressive sterilization policies are effective, then interest rates in Asian economies deviate from the market interest rates that would prevail in the absence of policy intervention. Since the seminal work of Feldstein and Horioka (1980), economists have attempted to obtain accurate international capital mobility measures.4Haque and Montiel (1991), Chinn and Frankel (1994), Dooley and Mathieson (1994), Hussein and de Mello (1999) and Sun (2004) argue that East Asian countries have traditionally exhibited high degrees of international capital mobility.5 In contrast, Reisen and Yèches (1993) apply a time-varying technique to measure capital mobility in Korea and Taiwan from 1980 to 1990. They claim that international capital mobility in Korea and Taiwan is low and indicates no future trend towards financial openness. Kim (1993) concludes that developing countries in the East Pacific Rim exhibit limited integration with global financial markets. Willett, Keil, and Ahn (2002) develop a theoretical model extending the framework of Haque and Montiel (1991) to illustrate that capital mobility in developing countries may be lower than traditionally believed once one accounts for the presence of central bank sterilization. Cavoli (2007) studies the effects of sterilization on East Asian countries' interest rates and ultimately capital inflows. However, a deeper understanding of how central bank sterilization impacts capital mobility is lacking. In this paper, we develop a model that integrates sterilization into the measurement of international capital mobility for developing countries. Our results are as follows. First, our theoretical model extends the analysis of Haque and Montiel (1991) to include the effects of sterilization on measures of financial openness. Second, we compute estimates of both sterilization intensities and capital mobility with and without sterilization measures. For most Asian economies, we show that capital mobility is lower once sterilization is included in the analysis. Third, based on estimates from our model, we find that the effects of sterilization are more pronounced for countries with relatively low levels of capital mobility and for earlier time periods; for countries with highly integrated financial markets, sterilization ceases to be a viable means of affecting the money supply. Our results are therefore of interest to any central banks considering whether to alter their capital control levels. Our analysis proceeds as follows. The next section presents preliminary data and background information on seven East Asian economies. Section 3 derives a model incorporating sterilization and measures of international capital mobility. We interpret and compare our empirical results in Section 4. The last section concludes and discusses policy implications.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
This paper has studied the effectiveness of sterilization policies in affecting international capital flows for seven East Asian economies. We first derive a model incorporating sterilization intensity on the part of the central bank. Given the stylized facts of sterilization, we show that traditional capital mobility measurements are very likely to provide estimates for developing countries that are biased upwards. This is an especially important finding for any monetary policy makers attempting sterilization measures, as using this modified measure will impact the magnitude of their actions in foreign exchange markets. Our related empirical analysis reveals that the seven East Asian economies generally exhibit high levels of international capital mobility, echoing the findings of Haque and Montiel (1991), Chinn and Frankel (1994), Dooley and Mathieson (1994), Hussein and de Mello (1999) and Sun (2004). However, sterilization appears to be effective when capital mobility is not particularly high, for example, in Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and Singapore in the 1980s. The empirical findings also suggest that effectiveness of the sterilization of monetary policy declines once capital mobility in the countries increases. Our paper provides a framework that explicitly includes sterilization actions when economists measure capital mobility. Therefore, our model helps to avoid upward biased estimation of capital mobility present when sterilization is ignored. Because sterilization is a mix of policy tools, future extensions that include determining other factors into our current framework would be a direction to gain understanding of measurement of international capital mobility.