اقتصاد جهان تا سال 2015: شبیه سازی سیاست در توسعه پایدار
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|29060||2001||18 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||9000 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Journal of Policy Modeling, Volume 23, Issue 2, February 2001, Pages 217–234
The new frontiers of science and technology in the 21st century will appear in the fields of space, environment, biotechnology, new energy, new materials and information high-technology and is expected to induce tremendous impacts on development of the world economy and global environment. The Futures of Global Interdependence (FUGI) global model has been developed as a media of providing global information to the human society and finding out possibilities of policy coordination among countries in order to achieve sustainable development of the world economy under the constraints of changing global environment. The FUGI model 9.0 M200/80 classifies the world into 200/80 countries and regional groupings where each national/regional model is globally interdependent through international trade, financial flows and information flows. The purpose of this paper is twofold: one is to present the baseline projection of the world economy to the year 2015 using FUGI global model 9.0 M80 and the other is to show alternative simulation of the world economy under the policy assumption on sustainable development strengthening technological advancement for environment protection.
In the 21st century, it is expected that integrated progress of technology, culture and development will be seen in the global human society, which is a dynamic organic system, made up of constituent parts or “members” that are globally interdependent. The information technology innovation will give tremendous impacts on human life, culture and economic development. Historically speaking, human behaviors, under the global cultural changes imposed by the increasingly interdependent global human society, are a rather new experience and challenge for the human society. Under these circumstances, the Futures of Global Interdependence (FUGI) global model seems likely to play a significant role in efforts to envisage the future of global interdependence and to provide global information on the development and environmental changes under alternative policy scenarios for the sustainable development. Project FUGI was started in 1976 with the cooperation of three Japanese institutions, namely, the University of Tokyo, Osaka University and Soka University, under the sponsorship of the National Institute for Research Advancement in Tokyo. The original FUGI model consisted of three parts: a Global Input–Output Model (GIOM), a Global Resources Model (GRM), and a Global Economic Model (GEM), Types I, M15. Yoichi Kaya, Faculty of Engineering, the University of Tokyo, Yutaka Suzuki, Faculty of Engineering, Osaka University, and the author, respectively (Onishi, 1977), coordinated the development of these models. Work in progress was reported at the IIASA global modeling meetings in 1977 and the years following (Onishi, 1980). The first generation FUGI global economic model (Type I, M15) designed by the author was the development of the Multi-Nation Economic Model which was originally designed by the author in 1965 and applied to 15 countries in Asia for the purpose of projections of the Asian economy (Onishi, 1965). Drawing on experiences with global modeling in the 1970s, the author developed a fourth-generation FUGI global economic model (Type IV, M62), which divided the world into 62 countries/regions and consisted of approximately 30,000 equations. It was first made public at a seminar on comparative simulations of global economic models held at Stanford University, June 25–26, 1981 and hosted by Bert Hickman (Onishi, 1981). The United Nations Secretariat, Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, Projections and Perspective Studies Branch for the purpose of long-term projections and policy simulations of the world economy soon afterward adopted this model for use. It was used from 1981 to 1991, when it was replaced by the new generation FUGI global model 7.0 (Type VII) Onishi, 1986a, Onishi, 1986b, Onishi, 1986c, Onishi, 1991a and Onishi, 1991b. For the period 1985–1986, a new generation of the FUGI global model was designed as an early warning system for displaced persons Onishi, 1986d, Onishi, 1987 and Onishi, 1990. During the period 1990–1995, the FUGI model 7.0 M80 was designed as an integrated global model Onishi, 1993, Onishi, 1994a, Onishi, 1994b and Onishi, 1995. During the period 1990–1998, with the cooperation of system engineers, the author designed a significant new software system for global modeling. This expert software system, named as FGMS (acronym for “FUGI Global Modelling System”) was researched and developed as a “package” for specific use in making computations for the FUGI global model 9.0 (Type IX) M 200/80. The FGMS software system consists of (1) database including ORG, CNT and RGN, (2) EST, estimating parameters of the model, (3) SIM, simulations using the model. It can carry out automatic estimation of a given set of structural parameters of the FUGI model, using OLS as well as Most Likelihood Beach-Mackinnon (MLBM) and forecast simulations efficiently, using automatic error correction system. This expert system has already passed through the experimental stage and entered the stage of practical application. It is hoped that the FUGI global model and its software, FGMS, can contribute to progress in the integrated global modeling. The latest FUGI global model 9.0 (Type IX) classifies the world into 200 and or 80 countries and regional groupings. Both models M200 and M80 can be run on IBM RS/6000 using FGMS. The internationally compatible country database (CNT) and regional database (RGN) are produced from original database (ORG) through the use of IBM RS/6000. However, in order to carry out computer simulations efficiently, the FUGI model 9.0 M80 reclassifies the world into 80 countries/regions so that the model can produce the long-term forecast simulations of the sustainable global development with constraints of global environment changes. As a result, the M200 model plays a role of a large spaceship using RS/6000 AIX workstation and the M80 model plays a role of a small scout ship for the global modeling research using a personal computer (Windows 98). The global model simulation exercises using M200 cover the baseline projection of the global economy, 1991–2033 and M80 covers 1991–2017 period only. The model can provide information not only on the global economic development and environmental changes in the 21st space age. Information on the FUGI model are available on the Internet homepage: http://fugimodel. t.soka.ac.jp. Further, the FUGI global model can be used as a global early warning system for refugees and displaced persons (or forced migration) which might be seen as serious global issues in the 21st century. It can provide information on the possibilities of appearance of displaced persons derived from the destruction of environment, failures of development, lack of peace and violation of human rights though the Internet homepage: http://suissgate.t.soka.ac.jp.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
Towards the 21st century, the global human society will face a challenge of sustainable economic development with constraints of global environment changes. Because of expected population explosion in the developing world, there should be further needs for economic development to provide employment opportunities in order to evade “economically displaced persons.” We tried to show a possibility of sustainable economic development from a global viewpoint by using alternative policy simulations. As it is shown in the technological advancement for environment protection scenario, there is a hope for achieving a sustainable economic development with constraints of global environment changes. If there would be global cooperation among the human society, there is a hope to open a new age of technological innovation and human cultures in order to cope with global environment issues through strengthening the cosmic minds by the scientific and humanistic education.