انرژی در برزیل: به سوی توسعه پایدار؟
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|29319||2008||11 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||محاسبه نشده|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Energy Policy, Volume 36, Issue 1, January 2008, Pages 73–83
The objective of this study is to analyze the evolution of the Brazilian energy sector with reference to the results of the business-as-usual scenario of the National Energy Outlook 2030 studies. The analysis was made with, as a starting point, energy indicators for sustainable development, which take into account social, economic and environmental aspects. The study demonstrates that the country has great availability of energy resources and that renewable sources can contribute to maintain a big participation in the production and use of energy, giving the country considerable advantages in economic and environmental terms. As regards the social aspect, on the other hand, the unequal distribution of income continues to be the country's principal weak point in achieving sustainable development.
Brazil has been prominent in the international media due to the strong presence of renewable sources within its energy sector. Data in the National Energy Balance (BRASIL/MME/EPE, 2006a) show that such sources represented 44% of the country's domestic energy supply in 2004, whereas the world average was 13% and that of OCDE countries 6%. A great part of this percentage is due to the strong participation of ethanol in the transport sector, and of the hydroelectric stations, which represented 83% of electricity production in 2004. On the other hand, the growth of energy demand will require that the country seizes upon all disposable sources to guarantee supply for the population. To this end, in a long-term perspective, various ways are open given the availability of the country's resources. If Brazil desires to maintain high hydroelectric participation in the electricity sector, it will need to expand the use of resources in the Northern region, where the potential is significant, although environmental factors are quite appreciable. If it decides to expand the use of fossil fuel sources, it will need to make big investments in the exploration of natural gas and/or coal. In this case the country will loose the great comparative advantage of possessing a clean energy sector. There is, furthermore, the possibility of increasing the nuclear program, which also demands great investments both in R&D and in infrastructure for the exploration and processing of uranium and the construction of power stations. Brazil can also invest more in renewable sources, which also are of high availability in the country, though, in some cases, technologies are not as mature as those previously cited. All the options mentioned are viable and the use of one does not make the use of another unviable. The question that the present study aims to discuss is: what paths should the country follow to ensure that its energy development is sustainable? This question will be analyzed on the basis of energy indicators for sustainable development. The indicators referred to were applied to the results of the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of the National Energy Outlook 2030 developed recently by the Energy Research Enterprise (Empresa de Pesquisa Energética—EPE), a state company linked to the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), whose main results was published by Tolmasquim et al. (2007). The study considered the development of macroeconomic scenarios that provided the framework for simulations of the evolution of the consumption and production of energy within a timeframe of 25 years. However, only the BAU scenario for the energy supply sector was built. The idea is that the analysis of these indicators will give support to the alternative scenarios, one of them following the path of the sustainable development.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
5. Conclusions This study has attempted to analyze the 2030 National Energy Outlook, based on energy indicators for sustainable development. The objective was to verify whether the business-as-usual MEN 2030 scenario gave an indication that the evolution of the Brazilian energy sector is sustainable. Among the dimensions of the energy indicators, that is, the social, the economic and the environmental dimensions, the last one presents better results due to the great participation of renewable sources in the energy sector. This characteristic is assumed to be maintained along the study timeframe since the government has been giving incentives to such sources. However, if the rhythm in the use of the hydroelectric resources is reduced, such characteristics can change significantly. It must be pointed out that only atmospheric environmental impacts were analyzed in the study. In the case of the economic dimension, it was verified that the energy intensity tends to reduce and efficiency in the production of energy increase. The consumption of per capita energy in 2030, however, comes close to the European pattern verified in 2004. It can also be noted that the country possesses great availability of resources, with the result that energy import dependency is relatively low. The social dimension is the most fragile. The scenario was designed based on the assumption that 100% of the population will have access to electric power in 2010. A deeper study, however, may reveal that, due to social inequalities, the affordability of modern forms of energy is very low for a great part of the Brazilian population. It is important, therefore, to develop studies that will bolster the formulation of energy policies which will have a social impact. This study demonstrates that there is still a long road to travel in the direction of sustainable development. However, Brazil shows efforts to progress, mainly in the institutional and regulatory areas. The country had problems in the restructuring of the electric section, culminating in the rationing of energy, but it was able to overcome the problem. Now, it is necessary to create conditions to exploit the domestic hydraulic resources, to increase its natural gas reserves and expand its gas pipeline grid, and to implement demand-side management measures.