برق هسته ای برای توسعه پایدار: مصر یک مطالعه موردی
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|29366||2010||5 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||4334 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Energy Conversion and Management, Volume 51, Issue 9, September 2010, Pages 1813–1817
Egypt is a fast growing country with 78.9 million population and annual per capita installed power 0.286 MW as of July 2008. Moderate to mature population and economic growth trends forecast population and annual per capita installed power to reach 111 millions and 0.63 MW, respectively by 2032; and 128 millions at per capita power of 1.02 MW by 2052. With these trends in consideration installed electricity generation capacity are forecasted at 70 GW by 2032 and 132 GW by 2052 as compared to the 2008 installed power of 22.6 GW. Meeting these demands is almost impossible using known limited national fossil fuel reserves. Current electricity generation policy exhausts about 65% of country’s total fossil production. Crude oil reserves are expected to deplete by 2012, while gas reserves will be overstrained starting from 2030. A major policy shift towards the use of non-fossil resources is to be adopted. In the article Egypt’s major primary energy resources are evaluated. Electricity generation plans till 2022 are presented and an electricity generation strategy based on gradual introduction of nuclear power starting from 2018 is outlined. A balanced generation mix based on 72.7% fossil, 13% nuclear and 14.3% renewables is targeted by 2052. The mix is supposed to meet Egypt’s electricity needs by 2052 and to improve country’s energy sustainability.
Energy is a major drive of modern economic development. With the increase of world population, more energy is required to satisfy rising human needs to maintain welfare. Improving of living standards and prolongation of human life itself depends, in the average, on the energy consumption per person. Moreover the demand for energy grows as more developing counties enter industrial and service stages of their development. In Egypt, as everywhere, energy plays a substantial role in country’s economic development contributing to macroeconomic variables as gross domestic product (GDP), commodity exports and investments. On the other hand, Egypt as a developing fast growing country suffers from rapid annual population growth currently at a rate of 1.68%. As of July 2008, the population of Egypt was estimated as 78.9 millions . According to the Cairo Demographic Centre, Egypt’s population is expected to reach 110 millions by 2031 and 128 millions by 2051 . Such a fast population growth along with other environmental challenges is overstraining the limited energy resources of the country. As is clear from Table 1, a carefully tailored energy policy is to be implemented to attain sustainable development.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
Analysis and forecast of Egypt’s energy resources and needs till 2050 shows the inability to depend on national oil and gas reserves for electricity generation that meets estimated targets at that time. Efficient utilization of energy resources regarding consumption, production and exports/imports requires a major policy shift towards the use of non-fossil techniques for electricity generation. Although wind and solar power can be used efficiently on local scales, yet constraints characteristic of large scale utilization of these renewables show they cannot be used for large scale continuous base load electricity. Resources of hydropower are expected to be utilized completely by 2022. Hence an electricity generation strategy based on gas/coal and nuclear options is suggested. The strategy is based on gradual introduction of nuclear power starting from 2018 and of coal-fired plants from 2032. A nuclear share of 13% of installed power is targeted by 2052. The suggested mix is based on careful choice of fossil, nuclear, hydro, wind and solar power and is believed to be most appropriate to meet Egypt’s energy demand till 2052.