دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 40460
عنوان فارسی مقاله

بازارهای کاهش انتشار CO2 و سوخت های فسیلی : جنبه های پویا و بین المللی سیاست های آب و هوا

کد مقاله سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی تعداد کلمات
40460 2015 14 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید محاسبه نشده
خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.
عنوان انگلیسی
CO2 emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 90, Part A, January 2015, Pages 243–256

کلمات کلیدی
سیاست کاهش تغییرات آب و هوا - بازارهای سوخت های فسیلی - پیمان کپنهاگ - نشت کربن - تعویض اینتر سوخت
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله بازارهای کاهش انتشار CO2 و سوخت های فسیلی : جنبه های پویا و بین المللی سیاست های آب و هوا

چکیده انگلیسی

This paper explores a multi-model scenario ensemble to assess the impacts of idealized and non-idealized climate change stabilization policies on fossil fuel markets. Under idealized conditions climate policies significantly reduce coal use in the short- and long-term. Reductions in oil and gas use are much smaller, particularly until 2030, but revenues decrease much more because oil and gas prices are higher than coal prices. A first deviation from optimal transition pathways is delayed action that relaxes global emission targets until 2030 in accordance with the Copenhagen pledges. Fossil fuel markets revert back to the no-policy case: though coal use increases strongest, revenue gains are higher for oil and gas. To balance the carbon budget over the 21st century, the long-term reallocation of fossil fuels is significantly larger—twice and more—than the short-term distortion. This amplifying effect results from coal lock-in and inter-fuel substitution effects to balance the full-century carbon budget. The second deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes the global participation assumption. The result here is less clear-cut across models, as we find carbon leakage effects ranging from positive to negative because trade and substitution patterns of coal, oil, and gas differ across models. In summary, distortions of fossil fuel markets resulting from relaxed short-term global emission targets are more important and less uncertain than the issue of carbon leakage from early mover action.

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پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.