دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 41285
عنوان فارسی مقاله

ارزیابی اثرات ایمنی جاده یک سیاست دورکاری با استفاده از روش رگرسیون جغرافیایی

کد مقاله سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی تعداد کلمات
41285 2014 15 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید 7880 کلمه
خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.
عنوان انگلیسی
Assessing the road safety impacts of a teleworking policy by means of geographically weighted regression method
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Journal of Transport Geography, Volume 39, July 2014, Pages 96–110

کلمات کلیدی
مدل های حمل و نقل بر مبنای فعالیت - مدل های پیش بینی سقوط - مدل های رگرسیون جغرافیایی - فضایی خودکار همبستگی - دورکاری سیاست - ارزیابی سفر مدیریت تقاضا
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله ارزیابی اثرات ایمنی جاده یک سیاست دورکاری با استفاده از روش رگرسیون جغرافیایی

چکیده انگلیسی

Travel demand management (TDM) consists of a variety of policy measures that affect the effectiveness of transportation systems by changing travel behavior. The primary objective of such TDM strategies is not to improve traffic safety, although their impact on traffic safety should not be neglected. The main purpose of this study is to simulate the traffic safety impact of conducting a teleworking scenario (i.e. 5% of the working population engages in teleworking) in the study area, Flanders, Belgium. Since TDM strategies are usually conducted at a geographically aggregated level, crash prediction models should also be developed at an aggregate level. Given that crash occurrences are often spatially heterogeneous and are affected by many spatial variables, the existence of spatial correlation in the data is also examined. The results indicate the necessity of accounting for the spatial correlation when developing crash prediction models. Therefore, zonal crash prediction models (ZCPMs) within the geographically weighted generalized linear modeling framework are developed to incorporate the spatial variations in association between the number of crashes (including fatal, severe and slight injury crashes recorded between 2004 and 2007) and other explanatory variables. Different exposure, network and socio-demographic variables of 2200 traffic analysis zones (TAZs) are considered as predictors of crashes. An activity-based transportation model framework is adopted to produce detailed exposure metrics. This enables to conduct a more detailed and reliable assessment while TDM strategies are inherently modeled in the activity-based models. In this study, several ZCPMs with different severity levels and crash types are developed to predict crash counts for both the null and the teleworking scenario. The results show a considerable traffic safety benefit of conducting the teleworking scenario due to its impact on the reduction of total vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) by 3.15%. Implementing the teleworking scenario is predicted to reduce the annual VKT by 1.43 billion and the total number of crashes to decline by 2.6%.

خرید مقاله
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