پیش بینی جمعیتی و قواعد سیاست مالی
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|41878||2014||12 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||8462 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 30, Issue 4, October–December 2014, Pages 1098–1109
All quantitative evaluations of fiscal sustainability that include the effects of population ageing must utilize demographic forecasts. It is well known that such forecasts are uncertain, and some studies have taken that into account by using stochastic population projections jointly with economic models. We develop this approach further by introducing regular demographic forecast revisions that are embedded in stochastic population projections. This allows us to separate, for each demographic outcome and under different policy rules, the expected and realized effects of population ageing on public finances. In our Finnish application, demographic uncertainty produces a considerable sustainability risk. We consider policies that reduce the likelihood of getting highly indebted and demonstrate that, although demographic forecasts are uncertain, they contain enough information to be useful in forward-looking policy rules.