انتظارات مدل سازی در مدل های مبتنی بر عامل: برنامه کاربردی برای ارتباطات بانک مرکزی و سیاست های پولی
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|41928||2015||12 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||9150 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Economic Modelling, Volume 46, April 2015, Pages 130–141
Expectations play a major role in macroeconomic dynamics, especially regarding the conduct of monetary policy. Yet, modeling the interplay between communication, expectations and aggregate outcomes remains a challenging task, mainly because this requires deviation from the paradigm of rational expectations and perfect information. While agent-based macro models allow for such a deviation, their representation of expectations dynamics often remains simplistic. This paper introduces an expectation formation model which allows us to integrate a wide range of information disclosed by central banks. This expectation model is then integrated to the macroeconomic ABM developed in Salle et al. 2013 — [Economic Modelling, 2013, 34, 114–128], and yields aggregate results strongly in line with empirical evidence. In particular, we find that i) opacity is always sub-optimal, giving rise to the so-called opacity bias, ii) communication loosens the trade-off between the two objectives of monetary policy, and iii) forward guidance acts as a partial substitute for policy actions, and softens the optimal policy responses. This expectation model appears therefore promising to develop macroeconomic agent-based models.