تاثیر تصدی سیاسی بر عدم قطعیت در بازار مالی استرالیا
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|42334||2015||16 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||7226 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Research in International Business and Finance, Volume 33, January 2015, Pages 59–74
The Australian federal election cycle, which occurs approximately every 3 years, causes much media attention and invokes indecision regarding investment decisions in both the real economy and financial markets. This paper constructs measures of political uncertainty and formally explores their relationship with market uncertainty, as measured by implied volatility. The empirical evidence suggests that increasing (decreasing) levels of uncertainty around the election result induce higher (lower) levels of market uncertainty. In a case of the market preferring the devil it knows, an increasing (decreasing) likelihood of the incumbent party, whose economic policies are well-known, winning the election, reduces market uncertainty. The results remain significant even after controlling for a number of macroeconomic variables, and when an alternative GARCH framework is considered.