دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 42349
عنوان فارسی مقاله

تولید بهینه نفت و عرضه جهانی نفت

کد مقاله سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی تعداد کلمات
42349 2013 16 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید محاسبه نشده
خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.
عنوان انگلیسی
Optimal oil production and the world supply of oil
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 37, Issue 7, July 2013, Pages 1248–1263

کلمات کلیدی
تولید نفت - گزینه های واقعی - گسترش ظرفیت - قیمت تعادلی نفت - اوپک
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله تولید بهینه نفت و عرضه جهانی نفت

چکیده انگلیسی

We study the optimal oil extraction strategy and the value of an oil field using a multiple real option approach. The numerical method is flexible enough to solve a model with several state variables, to discuss the effect of risk aversion, and to take into account uncertainty in the size of reserves. Optimal extraction in the baseline model is found to be volatile. If the oil producer is risk averse, production is more stable, but spare capacity is much higher than what is typically observed. We show that decisions are very sensitive to expectations on the equilibrium oil price using a mean reverting model of the oil price where the equilibrium price is also a random variable. Oil production was cut during the 2008–2009 crisis, and we find that the cut in production was larger for OPEC members, for countries facing a lower discount rate, and for countries whose governments' finances are less dependent on oil revenues. However, the net present value of a country's oil reserves would be increased significantly (by 100%, in the most extreme case) if production was cut completely when prices fall below the country's threshold price. If several producers were to adopt such strategies, world oil prices would be higher but more stable.

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