پویایی بلند مدت سیستم های انرژی: مورد ایتالیا
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|43351||2015||11 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||6600 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 96, July 2015, Pages 266–276
This paper analyses the dynamics of the Italian energy system, considering a long period of time: 1861–2010. The worldwide context is considered too, for the sake of comparison and in order to have a general framework. The aim is to uncover and characterize the mechanisms governing primary energy substitutions. The logistic replacement model is used, following the IIASA approach. Some characteristics of energy substitutions – such as penetration regular patterns, great inertia, de-carbonization – are verified, as well as some features not explained by the model — such as the coal resistance during the last few decades. Some particular aspects of the Italian system are highlighted; in particular – although Italy does not have nuclear energy production – according to the model it can be considered a country with an appreciable nuclear energy contribution to national consumption.