جدا کردن ریسک پروژه از ارزش زمانی پول: یک گام به سمت یکپارچه سازی مدیریت ریسک و ارزیابی سرمایه گذاری در زیرساخت
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|43911||2014||17 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||13840 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : International Journal of Project Management, Volume 32, Issue 6, August 2014, Pages 1056–1072
The rationale for using heuristics to establish a risk premium that is added to the risk-free rate to obtain the value of an investment is questioned and an alternative method, termed decoupled net present value (DNPV), is proposed. Rather than using utility theory concepts to decrease the value of uncertain cash flows, the risks associated with project cash flows are discretely quantified using insurance and contingent claim valuation concepts. Synthetic insurance premiums are designed to “protect” the value of expected cash flows which are treated as additional project costs. Because identified project risks are quantified in financial terms and treated as a real cost to the project, DNPV allows business executives to evaluate the effect on the value of the project of different risks and select management techniques that are deemed more effective. Hence, DNPV is both a valuation methodology and a risk management tool.