ابزاری برای نقشه راه تکنولوژی مبتنی بر سناریو : چگونگی ارزیابی اثرات تغییرات آینده بر برنامه های سازمانی
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|44382||2015||17 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||11310 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 90, Part A, January 2015, Pages 285–301
Scenario-based technology roadmapping offers a strong capability for strategic planning to respond to increasingly volatile environments. However, previous studies cannot guide organisations towards making robust decisions against complex future conditions since they remain conceptual and rely solely on graphical mapping tools. To counter this, we propose a systematic approach to making scenario-based technology roadmapping more robust by adding the ability to assess the impacts of future changes on organisational plans. At the heart of the suggested approach is a Bayesian network that can examine uncertainty inherent in future changes and ripple impacts resulting from interdependence among activities. The proposed approach is designed to be executed in three discrete steps: defining a roadmap topology and causal relationships via qualitative and quantitative modelling; assessing the impacts of future changes on organisational plans via current state analysis and sensitivity analysis; and finally managing plans and activities via development of plan assessment map and activity assessment map. A case study of photovoltaic cell technology is presented to show the feasibility of our method. We believe the systematic process and quantitative outcomes the suggested approach offers can facilitate responsive technology planning in the face of future uncertainties.