دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 44751
عنوان فارسی مقاله

رابطه بین قیمت نفت و نرخ ارز واقعی روسیه: مسیرهای بهتر از طریق تجزیه و تحلیل بدون پیش شرط در مقابل تجزیه و تحلیل مشروط

کد مقاله سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی تعداد کلمات
44751 2015 13 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید محاسبه نشده
خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.
عنوان انگلیسی
The nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate: Better paths via unconditional vs conditional analysis
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Energy Economics, Volume 51, September 2015, Pages 54–66

کلمات کلیدی
قیمت نفت - نرخ ارز موثر واقعی - تجزیه و تحلیل بی قید و شرط - تجزیه و تحلیل شرطی - روسیه
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله رابطه بین قیمت نفت و نرخ ارز واقعی روسیه: مسیرهای بهتر از طریق تجزیه و تحلیل بدون پیش شرط در مقابل تجزیه و تحلیل مشروط

چکیده انگلیسی

Instead of analyzing the causality between two time series (unconditional analysis), as it is usually done, the present study deals with the nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate conditioning upon potential control variables at well-specified horizons and on a frequency by frequency basis. This research accounts also for the possible transient linkages and signal discontinuities. A major finding of this paper is deeply suggestive of a sharp causality running from oil price to real exchange rate in lower frequencies. This implies that Russia should better tackle with turbulence triggered by oil price and continue to reduce its energy dependency via drastic and proactive measures. The economic and fiscal initiatives of Putin administration may help to cope with sudden shocks, to lessen the great oil dependence and to build confidence needed for economic recovery. While our research does not say much about the routes through which oil price may affect differently real exchange rate, it clearly indicates the presence of short-term relationship conditional to GDP, government expenditures, terms of trade and productivity differential. The conditional analysis and signal detection appear as meaningful exercises to find new insights into the focal issue.

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