دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 44754
عنوان فارسی مقاله

نوسانات نرخ ارز و اثرات شوکهای کل متغیر با زمان

کد مقاله سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی تعداد کلمات
44754 2013 22 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید محاسبه نشده
خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.
عنوان انگلیسی
Exchange rate volatility and the time-varying effects of aggregate shocks ☆
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 32, February 2013, Pages 822–843

کلمات کلیدی
برتون وودز - اعتدال بزرگ - نوسانات تصادفی - نرخ ارز واقعی - زنجیره مارکوف مونت کارلو - برداری ساختاری
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله نوسانات نرخ ارز و اثرات شوکهای کل  متغیر با زمان

چکیده انگلیسی

This paper investigates the dynamics of the real exchange rate and relative output among the US and five of its top six trading partners since the collapse of Bretton Woods. It employs long-run restrictions to identify the usual suspect macroeconomic shocks and their relative importance for exchange rate fluctuations. An improvement of the econometric application is that it allows for the contribution of each shock to the real exchange rate and relative output to vary over time. While the volatility of US output – both total and relative to that of the UK or Canada – is estimated to have substantially reduced since the mid-1980s, consistent with the Great Moderation findings of many others, the volatility of real exchange rates has experienced a gradual and continuous increase over the same period. Monetary shocks account for only a small fraction of these dynamics, although they do track well the increase in volatility of US output during the Great Inflation period. It is supply-type shocks that seem to be more important for the relative output volatility reductions of the mid-1980s. Conversely, demand shocks seem to account for the largest portion of the volatility increases in the real exchange rate. Perhaps unsurprisingly, both volatilities increase during the 2007 financial crisis and the ensuing 2008–2009 Great Recession – periods associated with higher economic uncertainty.

خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.