اقتصاد کلان اندونزی و منحنی بازده: یک رویکرد عامل نهفته پویا
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|44768||2014||15 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||9146 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Journal of Asian Economics, Volume 34, October 2014, Pages 1–15
We develop a fine representation of the term structure of interest rates in Indonesia and create a link between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals. We construct a state-space representation of the yield curve as a function of three time-varying parameters: level, slope, and curvature factors. The model is then expanded to include three macroeconomic variables: real activity, inflation, and interest rates. We find that the dynamic latent factor model provides a very good fit to characterise the Indonesian yield curve in terms of the statistical properties for each maturity, and in terms of the properties of three latent yield-curve factors. With regards to the relationship to the macroeconomy, we find that there is a large amount of idiosyncratic variation in the yield curve movements. Therefore, macroeconomic variables can only explain small dynamics in the yield curve.