مدیریت ریسک نامطلوب و سبد سرمایه گذاری بهینه مبتنی بر VAR برای فلزات گرانبها، نفت و سهام
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|45154||2013||17 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||8480 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Volume 25, August 2013, Pages 318–334
Value-at-Risk (VaR) is used to analyze the market downside risk associated with investments in six key individual assets including four precious metals, oil and the S&P 500 index, and three diversified portfolios. Using combinations of these assets, three optimal portfolios and their efficient frontiers within a VaR framework are constructed and the returns and downside risks for these portfolios are also analyzed. One-day-ahead VaR forecasts are computed with nine risk models including calibrated RiskMetrics, asymmetric GARCH type models, the filtered Historical Simulation approach, methodologies from statistics of extremes and a risk management strategy involving combinations of models. These risk models are evaluated and compared based on the unconditional coverage, independence and conditional coverage criteria. The economic importance of the results is also highlighted by assessing the daily capital charges under the Basel Accord rule. The best approaches for estimating the VaR for the individual assets under study and for the three VaR-based optimal portfolios and efficient frontiers are discussed. The VaR-based performance measure ranks the most diversified optimal portfolio (Portfolio #2) as the most efficient and the pure precious metals (Portfolio #1) as the least efficient.