برخی از دیدگاه های تاریخی در مورد مدل عملکرد درآمدی انبار اوراق قرضه برای پیش بینی سقوط در سراسر جهان
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|45162||2015||27 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||15356 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 31, Issue 2, April–June 2015, Pages 399–425
We provide a historical background on Ziemba’s experiences and research on the bond-stock earnings yield differential model (BSEYD), from the time he first used it in Japan in 1988 through to the present in 2014. Over this period, the model has called many crashes, but not all. Those called have had high interest rates in long term bonds relative to the trailing earnings to price ratio. In general, there will almost always be a crash if the model is in the danger zone. The model predicted the crashes in China, Iceland and the US in the 2006–09 period. Iceland had a drop of fully 95%. For the US, the call was on June 14, 2007, and the stock market fell 56.8%. A longer-term study for the US, Canada, Japan, Germany, and the UK shows that, over long periods, being in the stock market when the bond-stock signal is not in the danger zone, and in cash when it is in the danger zone, provides a final wealth which is about double that of a buy and hold strategy for each of these five countries. The best use of the model is for predicting crashes. Finally, we compare Shiller’s high PE ratio crash model to the BSEYD model for the US market from 1962–2012. While both models add value, the BSEYD model predicts crashes better.