دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 45422
عنوان فارسی مقاله

تورم، کاهش قیمت ها و عدم اطمینان: چه چیزی باعث انتظارات تورمی در منطقه یورو شده و آیا آنها هنوز هم درگیر بحران بدهی هستند؟

کد مقاله سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی تعداد کلمات
45422 2015 22 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید محاسبه نشده
خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.
عنوان انگلیسی
Inflation, deflation, and uncertainty: What drives euro-area option-implied inflation expectations, and are they still anchored in the sovereign debt crisis? ☆
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Economic Modelling, Volume 48, August 2015, Pages 248–269

کلمات کلیدی
انتظارات تورمی - کاهش قیمت - گزینه ها - سیاست های پولی - بحران مالی
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله تورم، کاهش قیمت ها و عدم اطمینان: چه چیزی باعث انتظارات تورمی در منطقه یورو شده و آیا آنها هنوز هم درگیر بحران بدهی هستند؟

چکیده انگلیسی

We tackle two questions in this paper: In the sovereign debt crisis, what moves the euro-area inflation outlook, and has the firm anchoring of medium to long-term inflation expectations been affected? We try to answer these questions by looking at option-implied probability density functions of future inflation. Deriving densities from a new data set on options on the euro-area harmonised index of consumer prices (excluding tobacco) provides us with the full distribution of inflation expectations, including uncertainty and asymmetry of market participants' beliefs about the inflation outlook. The daily data set allows us to analyse the effects of monetary policy announcements and macro news in a time-varying event study framework despite the short sample period from 2009 to 2013. Due to renewed fears of deflation, we compare option-implied and statistical density functions to gain insight into deflation risk. Inflation expectations show a decreasing mean but growing uncertainty, especially since the intensification of the sovereign debt crisis in mid-2011. Around the same time, the influence of monetary policy announcements on inflation expectations across all horizons diminished. Tail events such as deflation, although still contained, have become more probable. The impact of macroeconomic news on inflation probabilities has overall decreased and shifted towards countries more affected by the crisis. This paper's results regarding the anchoring of inflation expectations are twofold: The mean and low sensitivity to actual news speak for anchored inflation expectations, whereas the growing uncertainty reveals market participants' concerns about possible extreme inflation or deflation outcomes in the future.

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