برآورد بازگشت اجتماعی به زیرساخت حمل و نقل: رویکرد اعمال شده تفاوت قیمت به یک مطالعه شبه تجربی
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|45444||2013||15 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||9771 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Journal of Comparative Economics, Volume 41, Issue 3, August 2013, Pages 669–683
Using the price differences between two markets, this study proposes a method for inferring the social return to transport infrastructure (in the vein of Fogel (1964)). We apply this approach to an investment that increased the shipping capacity of a thousand-mile-long railroad in western China. The event was quasi-experimental: before the expansion, the railroad was congested in one direction, but not the other. We find that, after the investment, (1) the between-destination price differences of goods shipped in the congestion direction dropped by about 30% and (2) shipping volume increased by around 40%. In contrast, those of goods in the other direction were not affected. These estimates imply a sizable social return to this particular investment: 10% per year in the most conservative case considered.