دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 45545
عنوان فارسی مقاله

بانکداری، بدهی و بحران پولی در کشورهای توسعه یافته: حقایق تلطیف شده و شاخص های هشدار دهنده

کد مقاله سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی تعداد کلمات
45545 2014 17 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید محاسبه نشده
خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.
عنوان انگلیسی
Banking, debt, and currency crises in developed countries: Stylized facts and early warning indicators ☆
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Journal of Financial Stability, Volume 15, December 2014, Pages 1–17

کلمات کلیدی
بحران - کشورهای توسعه یافته - شاخص های های هشدار دهنده اولیه - مدل متوسط بیزی - سیاست های کلان محتاطانه
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله بانکداری، بدهی و  بحران پولی در کشورهای توسعه یافته: حقایق تلطیف شده و شاخص های هشدار دهنده

چکیده انگلیسی

We construct and explore a new quarterly dataset covering crisis episodes in 40 developed countries over 1970–2010. First, we present stylized facts on banking, debt, and currency crises. Using panel vector autoregression we find that banking and debt crises are interrelated and both typically precede currency crises, but not vice versa. Banking crises are the most costly in terms of the overall output loss, and output takes about six years to recover. Second, on a reduced sample we try to identify early warning indicators of crises specific to developed economies, accounting for model uncertainty by means of Bayesian model averaging. The most consistent result across the various specifications and time horizons is that significant growth of domestic private credit precedes banking crises, while rising money market rates and global corporate spreads are also leading indicators worth monitoring. For currency crises, we also corroborate the role of rising domestic private credit and money market rates and detect the relevance of domestic currency overvaluation. The role of other indicators differs according to the type of crisis and the warning horizon selected, but it mostly seems easier to find reliable predictors at a horizon shorter than two years. Early warning indicators of debt crises are difficult to uncover due to the low occurrence of such episodes in our dataset. We also employ a signaling approach to derive the threshold value for the best single indicator (domestic private credit), and finally we provide a composite early warning index that further increases the usefulness of the model.

خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.