قوانین تیلور و قابلیت پیش بینی نرخ ارز در اقتصادهای نوظهور
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|45912||2013||24 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||14981 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 32, February 2013, Pages 1008–1031
This study demonstrates the relationship between exchange rate determination and an endogenous monetary policy represented by Taylor rules. We fill a gap in the literature by focusing on a group of fifteen emerging economies that adopted free-floating exchange rates and inflation targeting beginning in the mid-1990s. Because of the limited span of the time series, which is a common obstacle to studying emerging economies, we employ panel data regressions to produce more efficient estimates. Following the recent literature, we use a robust set of out-of-sample statistics, incorporating bootstrapped and asymptotic distributions for the Diebold-Mariano statistic, the Clark and West statistic and Theil's U ratio. By evaluating different specifications for the Taylor rule exchange rate model based on their out-of-sample performances, we find that a present-value forward-looking specification shows strong evidence of exchange rate predictability.