پیش بینی نرخ ارز و اصول انتظار
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|46012||2015||22 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||13160 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 53, May 2015, Pages 235–256
Using a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts, this paper demonstrates that good exchange rate forecasts are related to a proper understanding of fundamentals, specifically good interest rate forecasts. This relationship is robust to individual fixed effects and further controls. Reassuringly, the relationship is stronger during phases when the impact from fundamentals is more obvious, e.g., when exchange rates substantially deviate from their PPP values. Finally, forecasters largely agree that an interest rate increase relates to a currency appreciation, but only good forecasters get expected interest rates right.