دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 46746
عنوان فارسی مقاله

اندازه گیری کمی ریسک تاخیر در پروژه با الگوریتم ژنتیک

کد مقاله سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی تعداد کلمات
46746 2015 11 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید 7820 کلمه
خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.
عنوان انگلیسی
Quantifying the risk of project delays with a genetic algorithm
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : International Journal of Production Economics, Volume 170, Part A, December 2015, Pages 34–44

کلمات کلیدی
شبکه پروژه - تحلیل ریسک - الگوریتم ژنتیک
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله اندازه گیری کمی ریسک تاخیر در پروژه با الگوریتم ژنتیک

چکیده انگلیسی

Of interest in project management is the (i) quantification of the risk associated with project performance and the (ii) identification of the project tasks that contribute most to that risk. Risk in this work addresses delays in project completion. The tasks and precendences are represented with nodes and links, respectively, in a project network whose tasks (i) have stochastic completion times that (ii) are subject to disruptions. An optimization problem is developed to maximize project delay subject to particular stochastic task disruptions, and a genetic algorithm is introduce to identify the critical tasks which lead to the maximum risk of project delay. A small project of 40 tasks and large project of 800 tasks are analyzed. Primary conclusions are (i) that critical tasks need not necessarily be on the critical path if they are subject to considerable uncertainty, and (ii) that project complexity (network topology) matters more in the performance of the algorithm than the number of tasks (network size). In fact, the genetic algorithm solution works well for large-scale projects whose schedules cannot be resolved with conventional techniques. Focus is given to the performance of the algorithm for this project risk context.

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