دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 46827
عنوان فارسی مقاله

تجزیه و تحلیل رگرسیون پواسون برای بروز سیل

کد مقاله سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی تعداد کلمات
46827 2015 4 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید محاسبه نشده
خرید مقاله
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عنوان انگلیسی
The Poisson Regression Analysis for Occurrence of Floods ☆
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Procedia Economics and Finance, Volume 23, 2015, Pages 1499–1502

کلمات کلیدی
رگرسیون پواسون - وقوع سیل - مدل خطی تعمیم یافته -
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله تجزیه و تحلیل رگرسیون پواسون برای بروز سیل

چکیده انگلیسی

Currently, flood risk can be considered as the most serious threat, mainly in areas and countries where hardly any other natural risks occur. In order to analyze this kind of natural disaster, it is necessary to examine the long-term development of its occurrence around the world as well as its financial and other consequences. The main objective of the research was to apply Poisson regression on flood occurrence as the dependent variable. The set of explanatory variables under consideration was tested and subsequently the final model was determined. Poisson regression model, which is a generalized linear model, was chosen as a computing model. Using it guarantees consistent results when working with variables with non-normal data distribution (skewed and discrete). Thus OLS estimator cannot work and is replaced by MLE estimator. Consequently, confidence intervals of estimated parameters and all model results can be received. The research resulted in selecting the Poisson regression model with an estimated and significant parameter. Moreover, sample sets of selected countries were compared and evaluated in terms of overall intensity of flood occurrence.

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