پویایی پولی در تورم یوگسلاوی در سالهای 1991-1993: تقاضای عقلائی پول
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|47325||1996||17 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||7200 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : European Journal of Political Economy, Volume 12, Issue 3, November 1996, Pages 467–483
The Yugoslav hyperinflation of 1991–1993 is one of the highest and the longest episodes ever recorded. The monetary dynamics of the hyperinflation is well characterized by the Cagan model. With revealed cointegration between real money and inflation, the model is accepted irrespective of the underlying expectations formation process and it implies stationary velocity shocks. Employing cointegrated VAR, the exact rational expectations Cagan model is rejected and an informal test within the same framework shows that the Yugoslav public exhibited a lower degree of forward-looking behavior relative to that in other classical hyperinflations. This enabled the government to extract non-decreasing seigniorage by increasing money growth and inflation above expected rates and suggests an explanation for the ever-increasing money growth in spite of the resulting monetary chaos.