اجرت ریسک تورم و فرضیه انتظارات
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|47332||2005||62 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||28599 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Journal of Financial Economics, Volume 75, Issue 2, February 2005, Pages 429–490
We study the properties of the nominal and real risk premia of the term structure of interest rates. We develop and solve the bond pricing implications of a structural monetary version of a real business cycle model, with taxes and endogenous monetary policy. We show the relation of this model with the class of essentially affine models that incorporate an endogenous state-dependent market price of risk. We characterize and estimate the inflation risk premium and find that over the last 40 years the ten-year inflation risk premium has been has averaged 70 basis points. It is time-varying, ranging from 20 to 140 basis points over the business cycle and its term structure is sharply upward sloping. The inflation risk premium explains 23% (42%) of the time variation in the five (ten)-year forward risk premium and it plays an important role in help explain deviations from the expectations hypothesis of interest rates.