تجزیه نوسانات رو به کاهش انتظارات تورمی بلند مدت
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|47415||2011||19 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||12613 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 35, Issue 7, July 2011, Pages 981–999
The level and volatility of survey-based measures of long-term inflation expectations have come down dramatically over the past several decades. To capture these changes in inflation dynamics, we embed both short- and long-term expectations into a medium-scale VAR model with stochastic volatility. The model estimates attribute most of the marked decline in the volatility of expectations to smaller shocks to long-run inflation expectations. According to our estimates, the volatility of shocks plummeted in the early to mid-1980s, moved to a somewhat higher level that prevailed for much of the 1990s, and then declined to and remained at very low levels.