شواهد تجربی در ایجاد انتظارات تورمی
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|47416||2014||22 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||16525 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 44, July 2014, Pages 147–168
Using laboratory experiments within a New Keynesian sticky price framework, we study the process of inflation expectation formation. We focus on adaptive learning and rational expectations contrary to the previous literature that mostly studied simple heuristics. Using a test for rational expectations that allows heterogeneity of expectations we find that we cannot reject rationality for about 40% of subjects. More than 20% of subjects are also best described by adaptive learning models, where they behave like econometricians and update their model estimates every period. However, rather than using a single forecasting model, switching between models describes their behavior better. Switching is more likely to occur when experimental economy is in a recession.