عقلانیت انتظارات تورمی بر اساس بررسی: مطالعه پیش بینی های تورم 18 اقتصاد در حال ظهور
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|47436||2016||9 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||7000 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Research in International Business and Finance, Volume 36, January 2016, Pages 158–166
This study investigates rationality of inflation expectations of 18 emerging economies’ inflation rates using 10 years (2001–2011) of one month-ahead consensus survey forecasts of annual inflation rate from a data source previously unexploited by the researchers. Given the nature of the data, we use the panel method to assess the relationship between the actual and the expected inflation rates. We perform various diagnostic tests to identify the appropriate panel test for the data by applying the most recent econometric techniques. We use a recently developed panel regression method based on simple OLS technique but derive standard errors corrected for serial correlation, panel heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. Empirical results show that forecasters’ expectations are strongly unbiased, and efficient to most commonly used sources of information including money supply and oil prices. This research fills the gap in the existing literature by studying a large cross section of emerging economies inflation rates as there is no comprehensive study on the issue for these economies.