ارزیابی پیش بینی عامل برای بریتانیا: نقش قیمت دارایی ها
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|47448||2007||15 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||9474 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 23, Issue 4, October–December 2007, Pages 679–693
This paper applies a large data set, consisting of 167 monthly time series for the UK, both economic and financial, to simulate out-of-sample predictions of industrial production, inflation, 3-month Treasury Bills, and other variables. Fifteen dynamic factor models that allow forecasting based on large panels of time series are considered. The performances of these factor models are then compared to the following competing models: a simple univariate autoregressive, a vector autoregressive, a leading indicator, and a Phillips curve models. The results show that the best dynamic factor models outperform the competing models in forecasting at 6-, 12-, and 24-month horizons. Thus, the financial markets may have predictive power for the economic activity. This can be a useful tool for central banks and financial institutions, which may use the factor models to construct leading indicators of the economic conditions. In addition, researchers can see a strategic application of factor models.