دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 47455
عنوان فارسی مقاله

دقت پیش بینی های رشد و تورم اروپا

کد مقاله سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی تعداد کلمات
47455 2000 23 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید محاسبه نشده
خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.
عنوان انگلیسی
The accuracy of European growth and inflation forecasts
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 16, Issue 3, July–September 2000, Pages 293–315

کلمات کلیدی
دقت پیش بینی - خطاهای جهت - پیش بینی آزمون
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله دقت پیش بینی های رشد و تورم اروپا

چکیده انگلیسی

One-year-ahead forecasts by the OECD and by national institutes of GDP growth and inflation in 13 European countries are analysed. RMSE was large: 1.9% for growth and 1.6% for inflation. Six (11) OECD and ten (7) institute growth forecast records were significantly better than an average growth forecast (the current year forecast). All full record-length inflation forecasts were significantly better than both naive alternatives. There was no significant difference in accuracy between the forecasts of the OECD and the institutes. Two forecasts were found to be biased and one had autocorrelated errors. Directional forecasts were significantly better than a naive alternative in one-half of the cases. Overall, inflation forecasts were significantly more accurate than growth forecasts, and in contrast to growth forecasts, they generally improved over time. This has implications for economic policy. Positively biased revisions reveal large errors in data.

خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.