برازش انتظارات تورمی قابل مشاهده
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|47458||2011||27 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||18611 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 35, Issue 12, December 2011, Pages 2105–2131
The paper provides evidence on the extent to which inflation expectations generated by a standard Christiano et al. (2005)/Smets and Wouters (2003)-type DSGE model are in line with what observed in the data. We consider three variants of this model that differ in terms of the behavior of, and the public's information on, the central banks' inflation target, allegedly a key determinant of inflation expectations. We find that (i) time-variation in the inflation target is needed to capture the evolution of expectations during the post-Volcker period; (ii) the variant where agents have Imperfect Information is strongly rejected by the data; (iii) inflation expectations appear to contain information that is not present in the other series used in estimation, and (iv) none of the models fully capture the dynamics of this variable.