بازنگری "پازل قیمت"
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|47460||2004||29 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||11753 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 51, Issue 7, October 2004, Pages 1385–1413
A large literature has employed structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models to investigate the empirical effects of U.S. monetary policy. Many of these models regularly produce a “price puzzle”—a rise in the aggregate price level in response to a contractionary innovation to monetary policy—unless commodity prices are included. Conventional wisdom maintains that commodity prices resolve the price puzzle because they contain information that helps the Federal Reserve forecast inflation. I examine a number of plausible alternative indicator variables and find little correlation between an ability to forecast inflation and an ability to resolve the price puzzle. Additionally, a sub-sample investigation reveals that evidence of a price puzzle is associated primarily with the 1959–1979 sample period, and that most indicators—including commodity prices—cannot resolve the puzzle over this period.