پیش بینی نرخ تورم در اتریش
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|47466||2007||11 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||5310 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Economic Modelling, Volume 24, Issue 3, May 2007, Pages 470–480
In this paper we apply factor models proposed by Stock and Watson [Stock, J.H., Watson, M.W., 1999. Forecasting inflation. Journal of Monetary Economics 44 (2), 293–335.] as well as VAR and ARIMA models to generate 12-month out-of-sample forecasts of Austrian HICP inflation and its subindices. We apply a sequential forecast model selection procedure tailored to this specific task. It turns out that factor models possess the highest predictive accuracy for several subindices and that predictive accuracy can be further improved by combining the information contained in factor and VAR models for some indices. With respect to forecasting headline HICP inflation, our analysis suggests to favor the aggregation of subindices forecasts over a forecast of headline inflation itself.