بازبینی P : پیش بینی تورم مبتنی بر پول با تغییر تعادل سریع
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|47474||2000||14 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||5232 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Journal of Economics and Business, Volume 52, Issues 1–2, January–April 2000, Pages 87–100
Alternate recursive estimates of equilibrium velocity are obtained by applying regression trees and OLS methods to a standard representation of M2 demand. Equilibrium velocity is defined as the velocity level that would be expected to hold if deposit rates were at their long-run average (equilibrium) value. We simulate the alternative models to obtain real-time forecasts of inflation and evaluate the performance of the forecasts obtained from the alternative models. While a P∗ model based on a constant equilibrium velocity does not provide accurate inflation forecasts over the 1990s, we find that a model based on our time-varying equilibrium velocity estimates is quite accurate.