دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 47492
عنوان فارسی مقاله

آیا در پیش بینی نرخ تورم پول اهمیت دارد؟

کد مقاله سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی تعداد کلمات
47492 2010 16 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید محاسبه نشده
خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.
عنوان انگلیسی
Does money matter in inflation forecasting?
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Volume 389, Issue 21, 1 November 2010, Pages 4793–4808

کلمات کلیدی
تورم - دانه پولی - شبکه های عصبی راجعه - روش هسته
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله آیا در پیش بینی نرخ تورم پول اهمیت دارد؟

چکیده انگلیسی

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two nonlinear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression—techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naïve random walk model. The best models were nonlinear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. Beyond its economic findings, our study is in the tradition of physicists’ long-standing interest in the interconnections among statistical mechanics, neural networks, and related nonparametric statistical methods, and suggests potential avenues of extension for such studies.

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