پیش بینی تورم با استفاده از انتظارات بررسی و تورم هدف: شواهد برای برزیل و ترکیه
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|47620||2016||16 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||11280 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 32, Issue 1, January–March 2016, Pages 138–153
In this paper, we formulate a statistical model of inflation that combines data on survey expectations with the inflation target set by central banks. Our model produces inflation forecasts that are aligned with survey expectations, thus integrating the predictive power of the survey expectations into the baseline model. Furthermore, we incorporate the inflation target set by the monetary authority in order to examine the effectiveness of monetary policy in forming inflation expectations, and therefore, in predicting inflation accurately. The results indicate that the predictive power of the proposed framework is superior to that of the model without survey expectations, as well as to the performances of several popular benchmarks, such as the backward- and forward-looking Phillips curves and a naïve forecasting rule.