دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 48539
عنوان فارسی مقاله

پویایی رتبه بندی اعتباری و مدل مخلوط مارکوف

کد مقاله سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی تعداد کلمات
48539 2008 14 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید محاسبه نشده
خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.
عنوان انگلیسی
Credit rating dynamics and Markov mixture models ☆
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Journal of Banking & Finance, Volume 32, Issue 6, June 2008, Pages 1062–1075

کلمات کلیدی
مدیریت ریسک - ریسک اعتباری - مشتقات اعتباری
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله پویایی رتبه بندی اعتباری و مدل مخلوط مارکوف

چکیده انگلیسی

Despite mounting evidence to the contrary, credit migration matrices, used in many credit risk and pricing applications, are typically assumed to be generated by a simple Markov process. Based on empirical evidence, we propose a parsimonious model that is a mixture of (two) Markov chains, where the mixing is on the speed of movement among credit ratings. We estimate this model using credit rating histories and show that the mixture model statistically dominates the simple Markov model and that the differences between two models can be economically meaningful. The non-Markov property of our model implies that the future distribution of a firm’s ratings depends not only on its current rating but also on its past rating history. Indeed we find that two firms with identical current credit ratings can have substantially different transition probability vectors. We also find that conditioning on the state of the business cycle or industry group does not remove the heterogeneity with respect to the rate of movement. We go on to compare the performance of mixture and Markov chain using out-of-sample predictions.

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